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The partial reopening of Hormuz represents a crucial inflection point that could either provide cover for de-escalation or merely postpone a broader confrontation. While traffic remains at just 20% of pre-war levels, Iran's strategic decision to grant selective access suggests Tehran may be testing waters for a face-saving exit ramp. The key variable remains whether Trump seizes this olive branch or doubles down on the hawkish advice from senior aides pushing for infrastructure strikes. Energy markets are likely pricing in too much optimism given the fragile nature of this arrangement.
• Iran cleared Iraq to resume oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with Baghdad previously sending 3.3-3.5 million barrels per day through the waterway before the conflict (Reuters). The approved country list now includes China, Russia, India, and Pakistan, pushing Hormuz traffic to the highest levels since hostilities began.
• US intelligence agencies believe Tehran won't fully reopen Hormuz anytime soon, viewing the selective permissions as tactical rather than strategic shifts (Reuters).
• Trump's senior aides are actively lobbying for strikes against Iran's civilian infrastructure, arguing it constitutes legitimate military targets given their role in nuclear and missile program reconstruction (WSJ). The president has reportedly embraced this more aggressive posture despite the potential de-escalation opportunity.
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