The SPX dipped -0.12% while the Nasdaq rose +0.35%. Broader market weakness showed elsewhere with the Dow down 269 points (-0.56%) and R2K falling 5.7 points (-0.22%). Brent dropped ~150 basis points to ~$94.50. The DXY fell 15 basis points. Gold declined 15 basis points while silver jumped 130 basis points and Bitcoin climbed 95 basis points.
Treasuries saw selling pressure with yields rising 3-4 basis points across the curve, despite the significant drop in oil prices. Fed expectations held fairly steady through the session.
The SPX has already bounced meaningfully from its lows (about 8.4% trough-to-peak in just a few sessions) and is flirting with the 6900-7000 level that acted as difficult resistance even before the war started. There's still substantial skepticism about the US-Iran ceasefire, so if the détente proves more durable than anticipated (which is our view), this should place upward pressure on the SPX. However, it's very difficult for anyone to make the case that the war made the near and medium-term economic landscape better than it was before. The inability of Treasuries to rally at all this week is a giant red flag about the inflatational implications of the war.
Critical US-Iran negotiations set for Pakistan as both sides expressed skepticism—an Iranian official implied the meeting might not happen while Trump warned the Pentagon was "loading up the ships" with fresh ammunition (NY Post). Trump told NBC he was "very optimistic" about reaching a deal with Iran, saying Iranian leaders "talk much differently when you're at a meeting than they do to the press" (NBC). China is playing a key role in helping negotiate Middle East peace, with Xi hoping this sets the stage for a successful Trump summit next month (WSJ). The White House is deliberately adopting a more conciliatory approach to China compared to Trump's first term antagonism (WSJ).
CRWV (CoreWeave) announced a multi-year agreement with Anthropic, joining their growing ecosystem of infrastructure partners helping scale AI model adoption. CVLT (CommVault) shares spiked after Reuters reported the company was exploring options after receiving takeout bids from "multiple parties" (Reuters). WEX faced pressure from Impactive Capital, which owns a 5% stake and pushed for board changes on Friday. Life insurers came under scrutiny in a cautious WSJ article highlighting the massive amount of private credit assets in their investment portfolios (WSJ).
MON NIGHT — China imports/exports for March
TUES MORNING — US PPI for March
WED MORNING — US import/export prices for March
WED AFTERNOON — Fed Beige Book
WED NIGHT — China retail sales/industrial production for March
Note: Warsh's confirmation hearing, preliminarily planned for Thursday 4/16, will be pushed back (Punchbowl, CNBC).
Monday AM: GS
Tuesday AM: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday AM: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday PM: SLG
Thursday AM: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
Thursday PM: AA, NFLX
Friday AM: RF, STT, TFC
European Earnings:
Monday PM: LVMH
Tuesday PM: Kering
Wednesday AM: ASML, Hermes
Thursday AM: Entain, Pernod Ricard
Friday AM: Ericsson