No specific percentage changes provided for SPX and Nasdaq in this newsletter. The author notes SPX is up ~11% trough-to-peak over less than a month and now sits in overbought territory.
The Fed's monthly pace of asset purchases are set to slow materially, with the NY Fed releasing an updated purchase schedule this week. Warsh's confirmation hearing on 4/21 could bring headline risk around balance sheet shrinkage, while Trump continues pressuring Powell to step down.
While early Q1 earnings have been positively surprising (especially the "status quo" messaging from bank CEOs who have the best macro insight), the time to aggressively buy has ended with markets overbought. The consensus now expects a US-Iran détente, which means deal headlines will lose their market-moving power. The economy won't escape Operation Epic Fury unscathed — stagflationary effects will persist at least into summer or fall.
Multiple reports suggest the US and Iran are moving toward extending the ceasefire or striking a full deal, with Trump claiming Thursday that Tehran agreed to hand over enriched uranium and abandon nuclear weapons plans (Reuters). Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day ceasefire Thursday. Iran could permit ships to sail freely through the Oman side of Hormuz according to Reuters, allowing face-saving for both sides. However, Bloomberg reports that Gulf and European officials believe a deal will take about 6 months — far longer than current market expectations. The Pentagon is reportedly ramping up secret planning for a possible Cuba operation (USA Today).
JBHT reported solid Q1 revenue and EPS upside, with management noting improving trucking macro conditions due to modest demand uptick and sharp capacity reduction from US CDL regulatory changes.
KNX issued downside Q1 EPS preannouncement but delivered an overall bullish message, saying "we are more optimistic about the earnings opportunity for our businesses over the next several quarters than we were three months ago."
PPG preannounced Q1 EPS upside at $1.83 versus Street estimate of $1.71, driven by higher prices and cost cutting, with Q2 guidance roughly inline.
PEP kicked off consumer staples earnings positively Thursday with Q1 EPS and revenue upside plus reiterated full-year guidance, featuring improved North American food volume trends.
NFLX experienced post-earnings weakness after providing soft Q2 guidance despite beating Q1 numbers.
April 21 — Warsh confirmation hearing (watch for balance sheet shrinkage headlines)
No specific earnings calendar provided for the current week.
No specific earnings calendar provided for the next two weeks.