SPX gained +1.02% to close at 6886, with equal-weight S&P up +1.13%. Nasdaq jumped +1.23%, Dow rose +0.63%, and R2K climbed +1.52%. Brent spiked ~3.30% to ~$98.35 (intraday high $103.87), while gold dipped -0.15% and silver fell ~0.40%. Bitcoin surged ~2.85% to ~$73.45K. DXY dropped 25 basis points.
Treasuries saw modest gains with yields dropping 2-4 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations moved slightly dovish, with markets pricing in 9 basis points of rate cuts this year. The NY Fed announced it would reduce T-bill purchases from ~$40B/month to ~$25B.
The Iran détente is proving more durable than anticipated (despite the Pakistan setback), and favorable technical conditions should continue supporting equities. However, SPX is now back within the pre-war resistance zone of 6900-7000, and it's hard to argue the macro landscape has improved since then. Risk/reward is turning increasingly neutral after the massive 8.7% trough-to-peak rally. The war's stagflationary effects will linger for months, creating headwinds ahead.
• Pakistan weekend negotiations achieved progress despite initial negative media portrayals describing the process as "collapsed" — reality was much more benign with ceasefire holding and communications ongoing
• Trump appears to be pivoting aggressively away from kinetic escalation, making ground troop deployment increasingly unlikely (multiple media reports)
• Three WSJ weekend articles suggested recent military campaign largely failed key objectives, with Iran retaining control over Hormuz and thousands of missiles remaining operational (WSJ)
FAST reported Q1 EPS inline at 30c with revenue up 12.4% to $2.2B (vs. Street $2.19B), but margins disappointed with gross margins at 44.6% and operating margins at 20.3%, both about 20 basis points below expectations.
GS posted Q1 upside with EPS of $17.55 (vs. Street $16.34) and revenue of $17.23B (vs. Street $16.94B), though FICC revenue was soft and investment banking fee backlog declined quarter-over-quarter.
LVMH missed on organic revenue growth at +1% (vs. consensus +2%), with Fashion & Leather down -2% and Perfumes & Cosmetics flat, though Wines & Spirits (+5%) and Watches & Jewelry (+7%) performed well.
DELL and HPQ rallied on SemiAccurate reports that Nvidia could acquire a "large PC oriented company" (SemiAccurate).
AMZN is expanding its Amazon Autos product as it becomes a growing force in the auto industry (WSJ).
April 14 — US PPI for March at 8:30amET (consensus expects major acceleration to +4.6% Y/Y vs. +3.4% in February)
April 14 — IMF/World Bank economic outlook update with press briefing at 9amET
Tuesday Pre-Market: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Tuesday Post-EU Close: Kering
[No specific earnings calendar provided for the following two weeks beyond Tuesday's releases]