SPX closed down -0.24% while the Nasdaq dropped -0.26%. The Dow finished roughly flat, but small caps showed strength with the R2K jumping +0.58%. Brent crude surged +5.30%, reversing much of Friday's -9.00% selloff. Gold fell -0.35%, silver dropped -1.40%, and Bitcoin jumped +2.15% to ~$76.26K. The DXY ended flat.
Treasury yields were essentially flat across the curve Monday. Fed expectations remained steady with markets pricing in 14 basis points worth of cuts for the full year.
Despite weekend setbacks in US-Iran negotiations, stocks traded well as investors focus on the bigger picture rather than daily noise. Trump has no good escalation options, making some type of accord or ceasefire extension more likely than not following face-to-face talks starting Tuesday in Pakistan. Even if a clean deal isn't reached by the 4/22 deadline, it will probably just get extended. The much more important catalyst this week will be the Pakistan meeting rather than Warsh's confirmation hearing.
• Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for the next round of US negotiations despite weekend suggestions it wouldn't participate (Nikkei)
• UAE has reached out to US Treasury about a potential FX swap line in case of financial stress from Iran war fallout (WSJ)
• Trump's approval rating sinks to 37% while disapproval rises to 63%, including 50% who disapprove strongly (NBC News)
ADBE is unveiling new AI agents to help customers automate digital marketing and other functions (WSJ). The company has an analyst meeting scheduled for 5pmET Tuesday.
BRC (Brady Corp.) will acquire HON (Honeywell)'s Productivity and Services business for $1.4B cash at 8x 2025 EBITDA multiple.
LLY (Eli Lilly) will purchase Kelonia in a deal worth up to $7B cash, including $3.25B upfront payment.
BLD (TopBuild) will be acquired by QXO for $505 per share in a ~$17B deal, with holders able to elect 45% cash/55% stock.
CZR (Caesars) is nearing a takeover deal with Tilman Fertitta at $32 per share or ~$18B (Bloomberg).
META will cut approximately 10% of its workforce next month (about 8,000 people), with additional reductions planned later this year (Reuters).
April 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30amET)
April 21 — Warsh confirmation hearing before Senate Banking Committee (10amET)
April 21 — US business inventories for February (10amET)
April 21 — US pending home sales for March (10amET)
Tuesday Pre: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, MMM, NOC, RTX, SYF, UNH
Tuesday Post: CB, COF, IBKR, ISRG, UAL
Monday Post: AGNC, ALK, Rio Tinto, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Limited visibility provided in source material beyond current week's major names listed above.