SPX rose +0.44%, Nasdaq advanced +0.54%, Dow jumped 165 points, R2K climbed +0.42%. Brent ticked up 60 basis points to ~$109.65, gold slumped 50 basis points, silver up 10 basis points, Bitcoin spiked ~312 basis points to ~$69.75K. DXY about unchanged.
Treasuries barely moved with 2 and 10-year yields trading flat while 30-year yields dipped 2 basis points. Fed expectations held steady as markets await further clarity on Iran situation and its inflationary implications.
Despite Trump's bellicose rhetoric, the escalatory options available (civilian infrastructure bombing, militarily reopening Hormuz, seizing enriched uranium) are all terrible, forcing him toward an offramp given that US strategic objectives have largely been achieved. Even without major escalation, SPX faces resistance at the 6900-7000 ceiling that existed before the war. A significant stagflationary burst is cascading through the global economy from five weeks of conflict, effects of which will persist for many months. Risks remain tilted to the upside if de-escalation occurs.
• US, Iran and regional mediators discussing potential 45-day ceasefire, though odds of agreement within 48 hours are "slim" despite Trump's cautious optimism (Axios, NYT, Reuters)
• Trump's latest Iran deadline stands at 8pmET Tuesday night, threatening intense bombing campaign against civilian infrastructure if no deal reached
• Israel killed IRGC's intelligence chief Monday, vowing to "hunt down" Tehran's leaders "one by one" (AP)
• Iran cleared Iraq to use Strait of Hormuz over weekend, expanding list of approved countries including China, Russia, India (WSJ, Newsweek)
• Traffic through Hormuz at highest levels since war began; French container ship became first Western vessel to transit since conflict started (Bloomberg, BBC)
AMZN struck delivery deal with USPS retaining ~80% of existing volume with the e-commerce giant, over 1 billion packages annually (Reuters). SLNO will be acquired by NBIX for $53/share in cash, deal worth $2.9B. STX and WDC saw strong gains on bullish Morgan Stanley commentary. FUBO expects $90M EBITDA this year (vs Street $85M), at least $300M in 2028 EBITDA (vs Street $270M), with positive free cash flow in '27-'28. IVZ shares slumped after BlackRock filed to create competing Nasdaq 100 index product challenging QQQ. ORCL appointed Hilary Maxson as CFO from Schneider Electric.
April 8 — Eurozone services PMI March (4amET)
April 8 — US durable/capital goods orders February (8:30amET)
April 8 — NY Fed consumer expectations survey March (11amET)
April 8 — US consumer credit February (3pmET)
April 9 — FOMC minutes (2pmET)
Tuesday After Close:** GBX, **LEVI
Wednesday Before Open: DAL Q1 results
Wednesday After Close:** APLD, **STZ
Samsung preliminary Q1 results expected Monday night (Street looking for ~50% sales jump, ~500% operating income surge). Financial sector kicks off Q1 earnings season in earnest starting next week.