SPX dropped -0.39% while the Nasdaq sank -0.73%. The equal-weight SPX fell -0.21%, R2K tumbled -1.46%, and the Dow eked out a small gain of +0.11%. Brent rose 110 basis points to ~$113.85 (overnight high ~$117), gold climbed 50 basis points, silver jumped 60 basis points, and Bitcoin dipped 10 basis points to ~$66.5K. The DXY rose 40 basis points, though USD fell 37 basis points against the JPY following Japanese rhetorical intervention.
Treasuries saw decent gains with yields falling 7-9 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations have swung from 10 basis points of hikes to 5 basis points of cuts for the year, with investors largely assuming no Fed action for the balance of 2026.
We're starting to turn slightly more bullish given favorable technical conditions in positioning and sentiment, plus potential for Middle East news flow to sound marginally favorable relative to current narrative. While escalation fallout would be significantly negative (as Iran intensifies economic terror), this exact prospect should keep Trump looking for an offramp. Iran is gradually and modestly reopening Hormuz to certain traffic, though tech will likely continue struggling. The one wrinkle remains technology stocks, which face secular disruption concerns independent of geopolitical developments.
Fighting continues unabated between US/Israel and Iran, with missiles and drones fired at each other (Reuters, Washington Post). Iran targeted critical economic infrastructure including aluminum facilities over the weekend, causing aluminum price spikes, plus electricity and water plants in Kuwait. Houthis formally entered the war by firing missiles at Israel for the first time. While Trump sounds optimistic about negotiations calling the Iranian government "new and more reasonable," Iran remains much more negative and skeptical about deal prospects. Media reports discuss US ground operation plans including seizing Kharg Island and capturing enriched uranium.
ALK said underlying demand remains healthy but Q1 was impacted by Puerto Vallarta unrest, historic Hawaii flooding, and fuel cost surges, seeing EPS of -1.75 vs Street forecast of -1.00. BSX shares slumped after reporting underwhelming Watchman data over the weekend. CVS will see net retail store growth this year after four years of contraction (Bloomberg). FLEX announced plans to acquire Electrical Power Products for $1.1B in cash. SYY proceeding with ~$30B acquisition despite macro volatility represents encouraging management optimism.
Mar 31 — German unemployment rate (3:55amET), Eurozone CPI (5amET)
Mar 31 — US home prices for Jan (9amET), Chicago PMI (9:45amET), Conference Board confidence (10amET), JOLTs report for Feb (10amET)
Apr 1 — ADP jobs for Mar (8:15amET), retail sales for Feb (8:30amET), manufacturing ISM for Mar (10amET)
Tuesday Pre: FDS, MKC, SNX
Tuesday Post: NKE, PLAY, RH
Wednesday Pre: CAG, CALM, LW
Monday Post: PRGS