SPX rose +0.26% while equal-weight climbed +0.49%. Dow advanced +0.24%, Nasdaq jumped +0.36%, and R2K ticked up +0.22%. Brent surged +3.40% to ~$98.15 despite Iran deal optimism. DXY rose +0.14%. Gold flat, silver dipped -0.35%. Bitcoin gained +0.70% to ~$75.4K.
Treasuries saw modest pressure with yields rising 1-3 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations held fairly steady, with markets pricing in just 9 basis points of rate cuts this year.
Iran deal hopes are losing potency as a source of upside pressure now that détente has become consensus (Bloomberg). Even with an agreement, stagflationary fallout from Epic Fury will persist for quarters. The Big 3 supply shocks of Trump 2.0 era—tariffs, immigration, and Iran—continue to pressure the economy, while elevated inflation keeps the Fed sidelined. Q1 earnings have been encouraging from banks and industrials, but elevated expectations in tech (evident in ASML and TSM's inability to rally despite beat-and-raise results) suggest caution is warranted.
US-Iran deal timeline extended to six months according to Gulf and European officials, far longer than current market narrative suggests (Bloomberg). Israel and Lebanon will observe 10-day ceasefire. White House will pressure oil executives to increase production to lower energy costs (Politico). Tillis threatens to block Warsh's confirmation unless administration drops Powell/Fed investigation (Politico).
ABT reported modest Q1 sales outperformance at $11.164B vs. Street $11B, with EPS inline at $1.15, though full-year EPS guidance reduced to reflect Exact deal dilution. BK delivered strong Q1 EPS upside at $2.25 vs. Street $1.92, driven by +14% revenue growth to $5.409B with particular strength in FX revenue (+49%). SCHW posted modest Q1 EPS beat at $1.43 vs. Street $1.39 on robust margin expansion, though revenue fell slightly short due to NII underperformance. TSM reported Q1 EPS upside with tweaked-higher full-year revenue outlook (now >30% vs. prior "close to 30%"), though warned of H2 margin headwinds. PPG preannounced Q1 EPS upside at $1.83 vs. Street $1.71 and announced price increases up to 20% across product lines due to Iran war input costs.
April 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30am ET), Warsh Fed confirmation hearing
April 23 — US flash PMIs for April (9:45am ET)
April 29 — Fed decision (Fed in quiet period beforehand)
Friday Pre-Market: ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
Friday Post-Market: AA, NFLX
Monday 4/20 Pre: CLF Post: STLD, ZION
Tuesday 4/21 Pre: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, HAL, MMM, NOC, RTX, UNH Post: CB, COF, ISRG, UAL
Wednesday 4/22 Pre: BA, BSX, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, VRT Post: CCI, CSX, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI
Thursday 4/23 Pre: AAL, AXP, BX, CMCSA, DOW, FCX, HON, KDP, LMT, PHM, TMO, UNP Post: BKR, INTC, NEM, SAP
Friday 4/24 Pre: CHTR, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB