SPX gained +0.62% while the equal-weight version managed only +0.08%, underscoring narrow leadership. Nasdaq climbed +0.83%, Dow rose +0.58%, and R2K advanced +0.61%. Treasuries were essentially flat across the curve (yields flat to up/down 1 basis point). DXY dropped -0.37%, extending recent losses. Brent surged ~2.6% to ~$97.20 (though off highs of ~$99.50). Gold advanced +1.1% while silver jumped +2.1%. Bitcoin rose +1.0% to ~$72K.
Treasury yields remained essentially unchanged Thursday, moving flat to up/down just 1 basis point across the curve. Fed expectations held fairly steady as well.
The SPX has already bounced ~8% trough-to-peak in just a few days and is approaching the problematic 6900-7000 zone that was resistance even before the war started. While we're more optimistic than consensus on ceasefire durability (which should pressure markets higher given lean positioning and negative sentiment), the Middle East will never return to pre-war conditions — ~$90 is probably the new ~$70 for Brent. A substantial burst of stagflationary pressure is washing over the global economy from five weeks of fighting, with Friday's March CPI expected to show significant acceleration.
• Netanyahu said Israel would seek "direct negotiations" with Lebanon, with reports suggesting Trump is urging the Israeli government to ease back on the Hezbollah campaign (NBC News).
• The Iran ceasefire appears to be holding, with Saturday's meeting in Pakistan between U.S. officials (led by Vance) and Tehran looking set to proceed as planned.
• Trump told NBC News he was "very optimistic" about reaching a deal with Iran, saying Iranian leaders are "much more reasonable" in meetings than with the press.
• Saudi Arabia reported losing ~600K BPD of oil capacity due to war damage.
• The IMF warned the Middle East war will deal a major blow to global economy even with the recent ceasefire (NYT).
BB reported upside on Q4 revenue/EBITDA ($156MM/$36.1MM vs. Street $144.1MM/$28.8MM), with fiscal 2027 guidance mid-points slightly ahead of consensus including EBITDA of $120MM vs. Street $116.5MM.
STZ rose on earnings while providing guidance that represents another downbeat data point for the beleaguered consumer staples sector.
BF.B spiked on M&A chatter after the WSJ reported Thursday that privately held Sazerac approached the Jack Daniels maker about a potential deal (WSJ).
AMZN CEO Andy Jassy published his annual letter Thursday morning with an extremely bullish tone on AI demand, especially the firm's opportunity in custom silicon.
SMPL guidance joins other downbeat consumer staples data points.
April 10 — US CPI for March at 8:30am ET (Street expects sharp acceleration in headline to +3.4% vs. +2.4% in February, core to +2.7% vs. +2.5%)
April 10 — US factory orders for February at 10am ET
April 10 — Michigan sentiment survey for April at 10am ET
April 13 — China imports/exports for March (Monday night)
April 16 — US import/export prices for March (Wednesday morning)
April 16 — Fed Beige Book (Wednesday afternoon)
April 17 — Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing before Senate Banking Committee
Friday Pre-Market: RF, STT, TFC
Monday 4/13 Pre-Market: GS
Tuesday 4/14 Pre-Market: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday 4/16 Pre-Market: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday 4/16 Post-Market: SLG
Thursday 4/17 Pre-Market: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday 4/17 Post-Market: AA, NFLX