The SPX dropped -0.63% while the Nasdaq fell -0.59%. The Dow slumped 293 points (-0.59%), the R2K tumbled 28 points (-1.00%). Brent crude jumped +5.30% to ~$100.50, extending Monday's spike. Gold slumped -2.85%, silver tumbled -5.00%. The DXY rallied +0.45%.
Treasuries saw pressure across the curve, with yields rising 3-8 basis points. Fed expectations ticked hawkish, with markets now pricing in only 8 basis points worth of cuts this year.
The Iran-led rally that drove the SPX up 13.15% in recent weeks appears largely over, with most viewing an agreement more likely than not despite Tuesday's uncertainty over whether face-to-face talks will actually occur. Earnings could take the baton from geopolitical relief to drive the next leg higher — Q1 results have been encouraging with most major reports showing beat-and-reiterate or beat-and-raise patterns. However, consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027 probably won't have much upside exiting earnings season. Trump continues to have only horrible options for kinetic escalation, making a face-saving deal the most probable outcome.
• US-Iran talks set for Wednesday in Pakistan remain uncertain after Vance's trip was "put on hold" or "postponed indefinitely" (Axios, Reuters)
• Washington imposed new sanctions targeting Iran and boarded an Iran-linked ship in the Indo-Pacific region
• US and Iran were reportedly closing in on a deal over the weekend, but Trump's public comments are hampering the process (CNN)
• Iranian officials privately say they're preparing to resume peace talks despite mixed public signals (NYT)
UNH reported massive Q1 EPS upside at $7.23 vs. Street $6.57, driven by favorable medical cost ratio of 83.9% (170 basis points better than plan) and slightly higher revenue at $111.7B. Full-year guidance increased, rallying the entire managed care space.
DHI posted modest Q1 EPS upside at $2.24 vs. Street $2.14, with the beat driven by higher margins (pre-tax margins of 11.5% were 50 basis points above consensus). Orders were solid at +11% to 25K homes vs. Street 23.9K, bolstering homebuilders.
AAPL named John Ternus as its new CEO in a significant leadership transition.
AMZN announced an expanded relationship with Anthropic, deepening its AI partnerships. Also launched a new weight management program that pressured HIMS shares.
TSLA and other major names report after the close Wednesday, including IBM, LRCX, TXN, and URI.
ALK provided ugly guidance warning of a massive ~$600M fuel headwind in Q2, underscoring challenges facing smaller airlines.
SpaceX will host Wall Street analysts for three days this week ahead of its planned late June IPO, with Musk and insiders retaining voting control via super-voting shares (Reuters).
April 22 — Indonesia rate decision (3:20am ET)
April 23 — South Korea Q1 GDP report
Pending: Warsh confirmation hearings continue amid timeline concerns before Powell's May 15 term expiration
Tuesday After Close: CB, COF, IBKR, ISRG, UAL
Wednesday Pre-Market: BA, BSX, ELV, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL
Wednesday After Close: IBM, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI
Coverage focuses on this week's major reporters, with particular attention to aerospace/defense names after Tuesday's post-earnings weakness in GE, NOC, and RTX despite decent results. The Google Cloud conference opening keynote kicks off Wednesday at 12pm ET, while Adobe holds an analyst meeting Tuesday at 5pm ET.