Markets showed modest resilience Tuesday as diplomatic hopes provided some relief from escalating Middle East tensions. The SPX managed to recover from early lows, while the Nasdaq held relatively steady amid mixed tech sentiment.
Treasury markets remained on edge ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes release, with investors parsing any Fed commentary on the stagflationary pressures building from the Iran conflict. The central bank faces a challenging backdrop as geopolitical tensions threaten to derail disinflationary progress.
The 6900-7000 resistance zone on the SPX looks even more formidable now than before the Iran crisis began, and Trump's escalatory options remain uniformly awful. While technical conditions favor bulls (negative sentiment, lean positioning), the stagflationary shock from Middle East fighting will persist for months regardless of any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Friday's CPI reading should confirm this ugly new reality, with headline inflation expected to surge from 2.4% to 3.4%.
• Iran submitted a 10-point proposal demanding attack guarantees, Lebanon war cessation, and sanctions termination, which Trump called a "significant step" but "not good enough" (NYT)
• Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are mediating talks, with Pakistan's PM noting diplomatic efforts were "progressing steadily" while proposing a 2-week ceasefire (Reuters)
• Pentagon struck military targets on Kharg Island while Israel hit Iranian railways and bridges, as the Pentagon refines civilian infrastructure target lists to mitigate war crime exposure (WSJ)
• Hopes are fading for any comprehensive deal by the 8pmET deadline, though Trump may extend if progress materializes (Axios)
GILD announced acquisition of Tubulis GmbH for $3.15 billion cash upfront plus up to $1.85 billion in milestone payments, expanding its oncology pipeline capabilities.
PSKY shares jumped after entering equity subscription agreements with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds to support the Warner deal financing structure.
ASO issued upside Q1 guidance with comparable sales expected at +2-3% versus Street estimates of +1.7%, benefiting from sporting goods demand resilience.
BX closed a $10 billion opportunistic credit fund despite elevated macro anxiety around private credit exposure (WSJ).
TTD shares slumped on reports that three top executives are departing the company (AdWeek).
TSLA faced continued pressure from weak Q1 deliveries, cash flow concerns (Street models -$5 billion FCF this year), and potential selling ahead of the SpaceX IPO.
Apr 8 — FOMC minutes (2pmET) from March 18 meeting
Apr 9 — US PCE for February (8:30amET), headline expected flat at +2.8% Y/Y while core cools to +3%
Apr 10 — US CPI for March (8:30amET), Street looking for sharp acceleration to +3.4% vs +2.4% in February
Tuesday After: LEVI, GBX
Wednesday Pre: DAL, RPM
Wednesday Post: APLD, PSMT, STZ
Thursday Pre: SMPL
Thursday Post: WDFC
Limited visibility provided in source material beyond this week's slate.