SPX +2.91%, Nasdaq +3.83%, Dow +2.49 points, R2K +3.41%. Brent fell 2.70% to ~$104.50, gold climbed 3.85%, silver advanced 7.35%, BTC ramped 1.75% to ~$67.75K, DXY slumped 0.60%.
Treasuries saw gains with yields dropping 3-7 basis points across the curve. The market is pricing in approximately 7 basis points of Fed Funds cuts this year.
The deescalation momentum in the Middle East is providing meaningful tailwinds, with Trump's comments confirming the administration's shift toward declaring victory and exiting the conflict. Even if fighting stops tomorrow, energy will continue embedding a significant geopolitical risk premium — but the market is clearly betting on reduced odds of US ground troop deployment. The stagflationary impulse will keep coursing through data for months, but bulls are taking comfort in continued M&A activity (~$90B announced this week alone) and housing disinflation. Corporate America remains relatively confident despite the macro volatility.
Trump effectively confirmed WSJ reporting about exiting the conflict without militarily opening Hormuz, significantly reducing odds of material ground troop deployment (WSJ). Iran acknowledged messages are being exchanged between both sides, with the country's president saying Iran is ready to end the war. The USS George HW Bush is heading to the Middle East, though it's just replacing the USS Gerald Ford which is undergoing repairs.
BIIB announced acquisition of APLS for $41/share cash (~$5.6B) plus CVR worth up to $2/share, with Apellis closing Monday at $17.09. LLY will buy CNTA for $38/share cash (~$6.3B) plus CVR worth up to $9/share (~$1.5B), total value up to $47 versus Centessa's Monday close of $27.58. MKC reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 66¢ versus Street estimate of 59¢ driven by revenue beat ($1.87B vs. $1.79B expected) and formally announced plans to combine with Unilever's food business. CEG shares slumped after providing 2026 EPS guidance slightly below expectations, with implied 2029 forecast also light. FDS delivered Q2 EPS of $4.46 versus Street $4.37, driven by 6.8% organic revenue growth and robust organic ASV growth of 6.7%, though operating margins fell 230 basis points year-over-year to 35%. MRVL announced deal with Nvidia for custom XPUs and NVLink Fusion-compatible networking, with Nvidia investing $2B into Marvell (Bloomberg).
April 1 — ADP jobs for March at 8:15am ET, retail sales for February at 8:30am ET, manufacturing ISM for March at 10am ET
April 3 — US jobs report for March at 8:30am ET (consensus +65K vs. -92K in February, unemployment 4.4% flat)
Tuesday After Close: NKE, PVH, RH
Wednesday Pre-Market: CAG, CALM, LW
Thursday Pre-Market: AYI, LNN