The SPX surged +0.80% while the Nasdaq jumped +1.59%, extending gains on ceasefire hopes and solid earnings. The Dow dropped -0.15% and R2K ticked up +0.30%, though equal-weight S&P stayed flat (a notable underperformer). Brent held steady at $94.85, gold fell -0.90%, silver unchanged, and Bitcoin climbed +1.30% to ~$75K. The DXY dipped -0.10%.
Treasuries saw selling pressure with yields rising 2-3 basis points across the curve. The Fed's monthly asset purchase pace is set to slow materially, and Warsh's confirmation hearing on 4/21 could bring headline risk around balance sheet shrinkage. The White House continues pressuring the Fed, with Trump warning he'll fire Powell if he doesn't step down.
With the SPX up ~11%+ month-to-date and in overbought territory, the time to aggressively buy has ended. An Iran détente is becoming consensus, meaning "deal is close" headlines will lose their market-moving power. Performance anxiety is driving investors to chase rather than fundamental conviction. The economy won't escape Operation Epic Fury unscathed — stagflationary effects will persist at least into summer or fall.
• Trump signaled the Iran war is "very close to being over," telling media to expect "an amazing two days ahead" with potential peace talks (Fox, NY Post, Bloomberg)
• Pentagon continues moving thousands of additional troops to the Middle East despite ceasefire hopes (Washington Post)
• Iran offered to permit ships free passage through Hormuz on the Oman side, allowing face-saving for both sides (Reuters)
• Iran warned it would target Red Sea shipping if the Hormuz blockade persisted
• Europe prepares NATO replacement plans in case Trump exits the US from the alliance (WSJ)
• Pentagon ramps up secret Cuba operation planning (USA Today)
BAC delivered strong Q1 results with EPS of $1.11 vs. $1.01 expected, driven by higher revenue ($30.3B vs. $30B expected), lower provisions ($1.3B vs. $1.5B expected), and expense controls. The efficiency ratio improved 170 basis points to 61%. Management raised full-year NII guidance.
MS posted impressive Q1 EPS upside at $3.43 vs. $2.98 expected, beating on higher sales ($20.58B vs. $19.7B expected) and expense controls. The efficiency ratio improved 300 basis points year-over-year to 65%.
PGR reported accelerating March EPS growth of +37% year-over-year to $1.21/share (up from +2% in February) thanks to premium growth and an improved combined ratio. However, Q1 overall EPS of $4.80 fell slightly short of the $4.84 estimate.
PNC beat Q1 expectations with EPS of $4.32 vs. $4.14 expected, driven by higher NII/NIM, expense controls, and lower provisions ($210MM vs. $245MM expected). Fee income disappointed due to mortgage servicing rights valuation declines.
BF.B received a $32/share takeout bid from Sazerac (WSJ).
GOOGL's SpaceX stake could be worth ~$100B if the rocket company achieves a $2T valuation in its upcoming IPO (Bloomberg).
SNAP will slash headcount by 16% or 1,000 people, generating $500MM+ in annual cost savings.
LYV shares fell after a jury found the company illegally maintained monopoly pricing power in ticketing (NBC News).
NOV preannounced Q1 downside on sales ($2.05B vs. $2.06B expected) and EBITDA ($177MM vs. $210MM expected) due to Middle East war impact.
APR 16 — Weekly jobless claims (8:30am), Philadelphia Fed index for April (8:30am), US industrial/manufacturing production for March (9:15am)
APR 17 — Eurozone trade balance for February (5am)
APR 21 — Warsh confirmation hearing (potential headline risk on balance sheet policy)
Thursday Pre-Market: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, PLD, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
Thursday Post-Market: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre-Market: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
Limited visibility provided in source material. Focus shifts to major tech and financial names completing Q1 reporting season, with particular attention to chip sector expectations following mixed ASML results despite beat-and-raise guidance.