The SPX surged +2.51% while the Nasdaq climbed +2.80%. The Dow jumped +2.85% and the R2K spiked +2.97%. Brent crude plummeted 11.7% to $96.50, gold rose 0.50%, silver gained 2.00%, and Bitcoin jumped 2.85% to $71.27K. The DXY dropped 0.80%.
Treasuries barely budged despite the equity rally, with yields flat to down 2 basis points across the curve — a concerning sign given the risk-on move. The market is pricing in just 7 basis points worth of Fed cuts this year.
The ceasefire sparked relief buying, but Treasury weakness is a massive red flag suggesting inflation pressures from the conflict will be more persistent than markets expect. Technical imbalances point to near-term upside, though the 6900-7000 SPX range will prove even stronger resistance now. We're optimistic the ceasefire holds, but the war's stagflationary effects are just beginning to course through global markets. Friday's CPI will be telling — the Street expects a sharp acceleration that could cement Fed hawkishness.
• A fragile 2-week US-Iran ceasefire sparked market relief, though violations were reported throughout Wednesday with Tehran accusing Israel of breaches (multiple sources)
• Iran continues asserting control over Hormuz, reportedly planning a $1/barrel "tolling fee" payable in bitcoin for tanker passage (FT)
• The Lebanon conflict rages on outside ceasefire parameters, with Vance noting Israel offered to "check themselves" temporarily in the country
• Face-to-face US-Iran talks tentatively scheduled for Friday in Pakistan represent the next critical test
DAL beat Q1 expectations with 64 cents EPS versus 57 cents expected, driven by robust corporate and leisure demand that pushed operating revenue to $14.2B versus $14.07B consensus. Management emphasized "broad demand strength" will persist into Q2 despite higher fuel costs.
RPM delivered massive Q3 upside with 57 cents EPS versus 36 cents expected, powered by higher sales and robust margins while reaffirming prior Q4 guidance.
WMT CFO struck an optimistic tone at a JPMorgan conference, calling the consumer "very resilient" despite "alarmist headlines" about macro uncertainty.
XOM warned of a $4.3B quarter-over-quarter profit drop in Q1, a sharp miss versus consensus expectations of a $600M increase, though management noted EPS should rise excluding "unfavorable timing effects."
April 9 — US PCE for February at 8:30am ET (headline expected flat at +2.8% year-over-year, core cooling 10 basis points to +3%)
April 10 — US CPI for March at 8:30am ET (headline expected to accelerate sharply to +3.4% vs +2.4% prior, core rising to +2.7% vs +2.5%)
April 10 — US-Iran meeting in Pakistan
Thursday After Close: WDFC
Friday: No major reports scheduled
Monday April 13 Pre: GS
Tuesday April 14 Pre: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday April 15 Pre: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday April 15 Post: SLG
Thursday April 16 Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday April 16 Post: AA, NFLX
Friday April 17 Pre: RF, STT, TFC