SPX gained +0.18% while Nasdaq climbed +0.67%. The Dow fell 134 points, R2K traded flat, and equal-weight S&P dropped 40 basis points. Brent crude declined 30 basis points to ~$95.65, gold rose 18 basis points, silver surged 130 basis points, and Bitcoin advanced 60 basis points to ~$72.85K. DXY slid 17 basis points.
Treasuries faced pressure with yields rising 2-3 basis points across the curve while Fed expectations held fairly steady. Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing, preliminarily set for Thursday April 16th, has been delayed (Punchbowl, CNBC).
Price action remains mixed as investors digest economic data and await the critical US-Iran meetings starting early Saturday morning Pakistan time. The tea leaves from the Middle East continue looking somewhat encouraging with Iran's ceasefire holding and JD Vance expressing optimism before departing for Islamabad. While the Bloomberg Russia/Ukraine headline this morning was hopeful, we're not reading too much into it — but it's still bolstering sentiment.
Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran, telling NBC News that "Iran's leaders talk much differently when you're at a meeting than they do to the press" (NBC). The US is considering options to encourage greater shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Axios). Trump is demanding NATO allies commit to helping secure Hormuz within days (Reuters). China is playing a key role in Middle East peace negotiations, with Xi hoping this sets the stage for a successful Trump summit next month (WSJ). The White House has deliberately adopted a more conciliatory approach to China compared to Trump's first term antagonism (WSJ).
TSLA: Barron's cover story explores how SpaceX might eventually merge with Tesla, as SpaceX generated $6.5B in adjusted EBITDA last year but posted a net loss just under $5B on over $18.5B revenue due to massive depreciation and equity compensation (Barron's, The Information).
TSM: TSMC reported Q1 revenue up 35% to TWD1.13T, slightly ahead of Street forecasts of TWD1.12T, with full earnings due Thursday April 16th (CNBC).
LITE: CEO made bullish remarks about accelerating demand and a filling 2028 order book, citing "enormous" hyperscaler capex with "no end in sight" (Bloomberg).
WDFC: Delivered solid Q2 upside with EPS of $1.50 and revenue of $161.7MM versus Street estimates of $1.43/$155MM, reiterating full-year guidance.
Monday night — China imports/exports for March
Wednesday morning — US import/export prices for March
Wednesday afternoon — Fed Beige Book
Wednesday night — China retail sales/industrial production for March
Monday morning: GS
Tuesday morning: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday morning: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday night: SLG
Thursday morning: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
Thursday night: AA, NFLX
Friday morning: RF, STT, TFC
No specific earnings guidance provided for the following week in the newsletter.