SPX flat, equal-weight SPX flat, Nasdaq +0.25%, Dow -0.48%, R2K +0.28%. Brent crude surged 5.75% to $100.65 amid Middle East tensions. Gold declined 0.85%, silver dropped 2.65%, while Bitcoin climbed 1.13% to $72.16K. The DXY ticked up 0.10% after several red sessions.
Treasuries held steady across the curve with Fed expectations unchanged. Speculation is rising that Warsh may not be confirmed as Fed chair before Powell's term expires on May 15 (FT). The BOJ's Ueda signaled unlikely near-term tightening given Middle East uncertainty (Bloomberg).
Stocks are demonstrating impressive resilience thanks to lean positioning and already-negative sentiment that would require significant catalysts to trigger a violent flush lower. While the Pakistan talks failed to yield a full deal, some progress occurred and Trump appears to be pivoting away from kinetic escalation (no resumption of intense bombing, very low odds of ground troop deployment). The situation remains fluid, but conditions aren't much different from Friday and are substantially better than before the ceasefire. Software stocks are rebounding sharply after three days of aggressive Mythos-related selling.
US-Iran talks in Pakistan made modest progress though no final deal was reached, with both sides maintaining contact through intermediaries and the ceasefire holding (multiple media reports). Hungary's opposition Tisza party won a landslide victory, delivering a crushing defeat to Orban with 138 out of 199 parliamentary seats projected (FT). China announced resumption of some Taiwan ties including direct flights and aquaculture imports (NBC News). The US Court of International Trade signaled opposition to the White House's 10% Section 122 tariff (Reuters).
GS reported Q1 upside with EPS of $17.55 vs. Street $16.34 and revenue of $17.23B vs. Street $16.94B, though FICC revenue was soft and investment banking fee backlog declined quarter-over-quarter. FAST delivered inline Q1 EPS of 30¢ with revenue up 12.4% to $2.2B (vs. Street $2.19B) driven by new contract signings, though gross and operating margins came in 20 basis points below estimates. CAG named John Brase as CEO effective June 1 (formerly President and COO of J.M. Smucker). LEG will be acquired by SGI in an all-stock deal worth ~$2.5B, with LEG holders receiving 0.1455 SGI shares. GFL is buying Canada's SECURE Waste Infrastructure for C$24.75/share in a C$6.4B deal (80% stock, 20% cash). AMZN is expanding its Amazon Autos product as it becomes a growing force in the auto industry (WSJ). META is building an AI avatar of Mark Zuckerberg for employee interactions (FT). MCD will introduce energy drinks and specialty sodas priced below competitors like SBUX and BROS (WSJ).
April 13 — China imports/exports for March (Monday night)
April 14 — Japan industrial production for February (12:30am ET), US PPI for March (8:30am ET), South Korea import/export prices and unemployment rate for March (Tuesday night)
Pre-market Tuesday 4/14: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
After EU close Tuesday: Kering
No additional earnings dates provided in the newsletter.