The SPX fell -0.50% while the Nasdaq dropped -0.82% and the Dow declined -0.28%. The equal-weight S&P bucked the trend with a +0.17% gain, while the R2K traded flat. Treasuries saw modest pressure with yields up 1-2 basis points. The DXY remained roughly flat. Brent crude rallied approximately +5.60% to around $95.50. Gold fell -0.70% while silver slid -1.75%.
Treasury yields are up 1-2 basis points across the curve with modest pressure on bonds. Warsh's confirmation hearing is scheduled for Monday at 10am ET, where he's expected to make the AI/productivity argument for rate cuts while emphasizing any balance sheet reduction would be gradual and market-friendly.
Despite geopolitical tensions, stocks are holding relatively well (equal-weight S&P positive) as investors continue betting on Iran deal resolution or ceasefire extension. The bulk of the "Iran deal" rally is probably behind us given consensus expectations for deescalation. Warsh will likely position himself as dovishly as possible during his hearing, forcefully arguing AI productivity gains justify rate cuts. The process should remain on a trajectory toward deescalation, even with Trump's public skepticism about extensions.
• Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for next round of US negotiations despite weekend suggestions they wouldn't participate (Nikkei)
• UAE reached out to US Treasury requesting FX swap line in case of financial stress from Iran war fallout (WSJ)
• Trump's approval rating sinks to 37% while disapproval rises to 63%, including 50% who disapprove strongly (NBC News)
• Republicans growing anxious about retaining Senate control in November midterms (Politico)
ADBE unveiled new AI agents to help customers automate digital marketing and other business functions (WSJ). BF.B controlling family reportedly prefers Pernod Ricard over Sazerac in takeover discussions (Bloomberg). BIIB agreed to acquire TJ Bio's exclusive felzartamab rights in Greater China for up to $850MM. BRC will purchase HON's Productivity and Services business for $1.4B cash at 8x 2025 EBITDA multiple. CLF reported modest Q1 upside on EPS, EBITDA, and sales, though POSCO deal talks taking longer due to Middle East situation. LLY will acquire Kelonia for up to $7B cash including $3.25B upfront. MCK selling minority stake in Medical-Surgical Solutions business in deal valuing unit at $13B. AAL rejected merger overtures from UAL (WSJ). META will cut approximately 10% of workforce (~8K people) next month with additional reductions planned later (Reuters).
Apr 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30am ET), Warsh confirmation hearing (10am ET), US business inventories for February (10am ET), US pending home sales for March (10am ET)
Monday After Close: AGNC, ALK, Rio Tinto, STLD, WTFC, ZION
Tuesday Pre-Market: CBSH, DGX, DHI, DHR, EFX, GE, GPC, HAL, MMM, MSCI, NOC, NTRS, RTX, SYF, TSCO, UNH, VMI
Tuesday After Close: ADC, CALX, CB, COF, EQT, EWBC, HWC, IBKR, ISRG, MANH, MCRI, OZK, PEGA, RRC, SON, UAL, WAL, WRB, WRFD
Calendar extends through Tuesday April 21 as provided above. Additional earnings dates for remainder of two-week period not specified in source material.