SPX +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.40%, Dow +88 points, R2K +3.7 points, DXY -0.15%, Brent unchanged at $109, gold +0.15%, silver -0.25%, BTC +3.00% to ~$69.6K.
Treasury markets are essentially flat with 2-year yields up 1 basis point and 10-year yields down 1 basis point. Fed expectations remain largely unchanged.
The market maintains a decent bid as investors cling to hopes for Iranian deescalation, despite ongoing missile exchanges. Trump's shifting deadlines (now Tuesday 8pmET) and gradual Hormuz reopening are providing tactical relief. However, none of his escalatory options — civilian infrastructure bombing, militarily reopening Hormuz, or seizing enriched uranium — are appealing given their massive costs, forcing him toward an eventual offramp. Economic data like the underwhelming services ISM adds complexity, but geopolitical dynamics are driving near-term price action.
US, Iran, and regional mediators discussing potential 45-day ceasefire, though Trump expressed optimism while odds of a deal within 48 hours remain "slim" (Axios, NYT, Reuters). Israel killed IRGC's intelligence chief Monday and vowed to "hunt down" Tehran's leaders "one by one" (AP). Iran cleared Iraq to use Strait of Hormuz, joining China, Russia, India, and Pakistan with passage rights (WSJ). Traffic through Hormuz hits highest levels since war began, with first Western vessel (French container ship) transiting Friday (Bloomberg, BBC). Trump embracing advisers' case that Iran's civilian infrastructure constitutes legitimate military targets (WSJ).
CNC announced two new executive leadership positions under CEO Sarah London, hiring Daniel Finke as Group President, Markets and Commercial, and appointing Michael Carson to Group President, Medicare and Specialty. FUBO expects $90M EBITDA this year (vs. Street $85M), at least $300M in 2028 EBITDA (vs. Street $270M), and positive free cash flow in '27-'28. IVZ shares slumped after BlackRock filed to create its own Nasdaq 100 index, threatening QQQ competition. NBIX will acquire SLNO for $53/share in cash, a $2.9B deal. ORCL appointed Hilary Maxson as CFO, previously EVP and Group CFO at Schneider Electric. STX and WDC saw strong gains on bullish Morgan Stanley commentary. AMZN will impose 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party merchants (WSJ).
April 7 — Eurozone services PMI for March (4amET), US durable/capital goods orders for February (8:30amET), NY Fed consumer expectations survey for March (11amET), US consumer credit for February (3pmET).
Monday After Market: GBX, LEVI
Samsung Electronics preliminary Q1 results expected tonight, showing massive operating profit surge and ~50% sales spike.