The SPX climbed +0.55% while the Nasdaq gained +0.31%, though both have faded from opening highs. The Dow surged +0.90% and equal-weight S&P outperformed at +0.76%, while the R2K declined -0.25%. Treasuries rallied with yields down 6-11 basis points across the curve. DXY rose +0.35%, Brent advanced ~0.60%, Gold gained ~1.00%, and Silver jumped +1.70%.
Treasury yields fell 6-11 basis points across the curve in a sizeable rally. Fed expectations remain largely steady with the market still not pricing in any funds rate moves this year.
Equities are fading from opening highs as investors remain skeptical of Trump's hopeful Middle East pronouncements — until senior officials (JD, Marco, Steve, or Jared) board planes to Pakistan for Iranian counterpart meetings, the "everything is going swimmingly" rhetoric will fall on deaf ears. Pretty much every piece of news points to escalating conflict with most assuming boots on the ground within weeks. Powell's Harvard appearance maintained a calmer tone, suggesting the Fed will look past tariffs and oil shocks as one-time events while core inflation nears target. Tech continues trading poorly for reasons mostly independent of geopolitics, while Germany's March CPI acceleration signals what's coming to global inflation gauges as war effects materialize in data.
• Trump claimed Iran agreed to most of 15 points in recent peace proposal and called new leadership "very reasonable," though Tehran publicly downplays talk progress (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Iran permitted 20 additional oil ships through Hormuz, which Trump hailed as relationship progress; Pakistan praised this as "constructive gesture" (NYT)
• Pentagon preparing for "weeks" of ground operations in Iran via quick raids, not wholesale invasion; Trump could authorize seizing enriched uranium (Washington Post, WSJ)
• At least 12 US troops injured in Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, with military jets damaged and critical E-3 Sentry aircraft destroyed (NYT, Bloomberg)
• Yemen's Houthis fired missiles at Israel Saturday, marking group's first war entry and dramatic escalation (FT, Reuters)
• Israel rationing interceptors amid elevated missile/drone barrage, allowing some projectiles through (WSJ)
ALK said underlying demand remains healthy but Q1 business was negatively impacted by Puerto Vallarta unrest, historic Hawaii flooding, and surging fuel costs, seeing EPS of -1.75 versus Street forecast of -1.00.
SYY announced acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29.1B including $21.6B cash and 91.5M shares, working out to 14.6x operating income (13x after synergies). The stock is slumping as investors don't love the deal.
FLEX announced plans to acquire Electrical Power Products for $1.1B in cash, with the transaction expected to be accretive to adjusted EPS in the first full fiscal year after close.
CVS will see net retail store growth this year after four years of contraction (Bloomberg).
GM will accelerate heavy-duty truck production thanks to strong demand (WSJ).
BSX is being weighed down by underwhelming Watchman data.
March 30 — South Korea industrial production for Feb, Japan Tokyo CPI for Mar, Japan retail sales/industrial production for Feb, RBA March meeting minutes, China NBS PMIs for Mar
March 31 — German unemployment rate for Mar (3:55amET), Eurozone CPI for Mar (5amET), US home prices for Jan (9amET), Chicago PMI for Mar (9:45amET), Conference Board confidence for Mar (10amET), JOLTs report for Feb (10amET)
Monday After Close: PRGS
Tuesday Pre-Market: FDS, MKC, SNX
Tuesday After Close: NKE, PLAY, RH
No specific earnings dates provided beyond this week.