SPX +0.10%, equal-weight S&P +0.34%, Dow -0.04%, R2K -0.18%. Treasury yields flat to up 1 basis point while the DXY climbs 0.18%. Brent advances 3.25% to ~$98, gold flat, silver down 0.40%. Bitcoin drops 1.20% to ~$73.9K.
Treasury yields holding steady with minimal movement as markets price in just 9 basis points of rate cuts for the year. Fed expectations remain largely unchanged ahead of the quiet period before the April 29th decision.
US equities are treading water following the torrid month-to-date rally as investors await concrete Middle East developments and more Q1 earnings. The consensus view that the Iran conflict stays cold (rather than hot) means ceasefire headlines won't pack the same bullish punch going forward. Q1 results have been encouraging so far, particularly from banks and select industrials, but we're still early in earnings season and significant stagflationary fallout from the war remains a concern.
• China reported Q1 GDP growth of 5% versus expectations of 4.8%, with March industrial production at 5.7% versus 4.8% expected, though retail sales disappointed at 1.7% versus 2.4% expected (Reuters)
• Senator Tillis will block Warsh's Fed confirmation unless the White House drops its Powell investigation (Politico)
• White House preparing to pressure oil and gas executives to increase production amid efforts to lower energy costs (Politico)
TSM reported Q1 EPS upside driven by robust margins, with Q2 guidance ahead of expectations and full-year revenue outlook raised to >30% from "close to 30%". Management doesn't expect near-term Middle East supply chain disruptions and sees capex at the high-end of $52-56B guidance.
PEP delivered Q1 EPS of $1.61 versus Street's $1.55, driven by organic growth of 2.6% versus expected 2.4% and a lower tax rate. Full-year guidance reiterated despite management acknowledging increased macro volatility.
SCHW posted Q1 EPS of $1.43 versus $1.39 expected, with pre-tax margins jumping 500+ basis points year-over-year, though revenue at $6.482B fell slightly short of $6.51B estimates due to NII/NIM underperformance.
BK delivered strong Q1 EPS upside at $2.25 versus Street's $1.92, driven by 14% revenue growth to $5.409B (versus $5.18B expected) with particular strength in FX revenue (+49%) and investment services fees (+10%).
PPG preannounced Q1 EPS upside at $1.83 versus $1.71 expected, driven by higher prices and cost cutting despite flat volumes. The company is implementing price increases up to 20% across product lines due to Iran war-related input cost spikes.
April 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30am ET), Warsh Fed confirmation hearing
April 23 — US flash PMIs for April (9:45am ET)
April 29 — Fed decision (Fed in quiet period until then)
Thursday After Close: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre-Market: Ericsson (EU), ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
Monday 4/20 Pre: CLF Post: STLD, ZION
Tuesday 4/21 Pre: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, HAL, MMM, NOC, RTX, UNH Post: CB, COF, ISRG, UAL
Wednesday 4/22 Pre: BA, BSX, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, VRT Post: CCI, CSX, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI
Thursday 4/23 Pre: AAL, AXP, BX, CMCSA, DOW, FCX, HON, KDP, LMT, PHM, TMO, UNP Post: BKR, INTC, NEM, SAP
Friday 4/24 Pre: CHTR, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB