SPX -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.14%, Dow -174 points/-0.36%, R2K -5.4 points/-0.21%. Brent rebounding +4.50% to ~$99 (down from ~$110 before ceasefire, up from ~$90 Wednesday trough). Gold and silver both up +0.90-1.00%. Bitcoin dips -0.40% to ~$71.1K. DXY sliding -0.13%.
Treasuries flat-to-down small with yields flat-to-up 3 basis points. Fed expectations holding fairly steady despite mixed economic data showing personal income/spending shortfalls and elevated core PCE at +3% in February.
The aggressive rotation into AI infrastructure stocks while legacy software gets violently sold off signals a fundamental shift in how markets are pricing the AI revolution. Anticipation of extremely powerful model releases from Anthropic and OpenAI (so powerful neither feels comfortable releasing publicly without preparing major tech firms first) is driving this violent pivot. While geopolitics dominate macro conversations, AI infrastructure is the real story in equities today. The US-Iran ceasefire holding ahead of Saturday's Pakistan meeting provides some stability, but ongoing Lebanon fighting and Hormuz uncertainties keep risk elevated.
• Vance will lead US delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks this weekend (Axios)
• Israel offers to dial back Lebanon activity during US-Iran negotiations (Axios)
• Israel preparing for permanent war state despite Washington-Tehran détente efforts (Reuters)
• White House likely extending current waiver on certain Russian/Iran oil sanctions (Semafor)
• NATO troop repositioning under consideration - US weighing shifting troops from countries deemed unhelpful during Iran campaign (WSJ)
BB reported Q4 upside with revenue/EBITDA of $156MM/$36.1MM vs. Street $144.1MM/$28.8MM, F27 guidance mid-points slightly ahead including EBITDA $120MM vs. Street $116.5MM. AMZN CEO Jassy's annual letter very bullish on AI, especially Amazon's AI chip opportunity. META committed additional $21B spending with CoreWeave through 2032 (CNBC). INTC announced multiyear Google collaboration advancing next-generation AI and cloud infrastructure, expanding co-development of custom ASIC-based IPUs. STZ beat Q4 expectations with EPS $1.90 vs. Street $1.73 on higher sales ($1.92B vs. $1.87B) and better-than-feared margins, though F27 EPS guidance mid-point $11.55 disappoints vs. Street $12.44. CG flagship private-credit interval fund hit with elevated 15.7% Q1 redemptions (WSJ). SMPL missed Q2 with sales $326MM vs. Street $344.4MM due to Atkins/OWYN softness, slashing full-year EBITDA guidance to ~$221MM vs. Street ~$267MM. WSR being acquired by Ares for $19/share cash in $1.7B deal.
April 10 — US CPI March (8:30am ET), factory orders February (10am ET), Michigan sentiment April (10am ET)
April 13 — China imports/exports March (Monday night)
April 16 — US import/export prices March (Wednesday morning), Fed Beige Book (Wednesday afternoon), China retail sales/industrial production March (Wednesday night)
April 17 — Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing Senate Banking Committee (Thursday)
Thursday after close: WDFC
Friday: No major reports listed
Monday 4/13 morning: GS
Tuesday 4/14 morning: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday 4/15 morning: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday 4/15 after close: SLG
Thursday 4/16 morning: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday 4/16 after close: AA, NFLX
Friday 4/17 morning: RF, STT, TFC