The SPX surged +1.46% with the Nasdaq leading at +1.21%. The Dow gained 286 points (+0.60%) while the R2K jumped +1.33%. Treasuries held steady (yields flat to down 2 basis points) despite cooler PPI data. The DXY slid another -0.35%. Brent crude dropped -3.50% to ~$95.85 while gold rallied +1.23% and silver advanced +4.30%. Bitcoin climbed +2.60% to ~$75.12K.
Treasury yields remained essentially flat despite March PPI coming in cooler than anticipated. The Warsh nomination is advancing with a confirmation hearing scheduled for April 21, though Senate approval likely awaits abandonment of the Powell investigation.
Stocks are extending gains primarily on Iran hopes as negotiations continue with reports of potential face-to-face meetings ahead. However, caution is warranted — an extended Iran détente is becoming consensus, while technical factors aren't providing the same boost as recent days (the SPX is now up ~10% trough-to-peak from the March 30 low of ~6300). The convergence of geopolitical optimism and decent bank earnings is supporting the rally, though positioning and sentiment tailwinds are moderating.
• US and Iran may hold another face-to-face meeting before the current ceasefire expires, with teams potentially returning to Islamabad this week (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Iran is reportedly curbing its own Hormuz traffic to avoid confrontation with the US blockade during ongoing negotiations (Bloomberg)
• The US proposed a 20-year uranium enrichment moratorium during Pakistan talks; Iran countered with a "single digit" period (Axios, NYT)
• Saudi Arabia is pressuring the White House to end the blockade and return to negotiations (WSJ)
ACI reported Q4 EPS upside at 48¢ vs. Street's 43¢ with EBITDA of $903.4MM vs. $860MM expected, though sales fell short as comps rose only 0.7% vs. Street's +1.7% due to pharma pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act.
BLK delivered solid Q1 EPS upside at $12.53 vs. Street's $11.48, driven by revenue jumping 27% to $6.698B and operating margins expanding 130 basis points to 44.5%, though long-term net inflows of $136B missed the $146B estimate.
C reported strong Q1 EPS upside at $3.06 vs. Street's $2.66, with revenue up 14% to $24.6B and efficiency ratio improving over 200 basis points to 58.1%.
JPM beat Q1 estimates with EPS of $5.94, driven by revenue of $50.5B vs. Street's $49.26B and lower provisions of $2.5B vs. expected $3.1B.
WFC posted modest Q1 EPS upside at $1.60 vs. $1.58 expected, though total revenue of $21.4B fell short of the $21.75B estimate with NIM missing by ~10 basis points at 2.47%.
Apr 15 — Empire Manufacturing Index for April, import/export prices for March, NAHB housing market index, Fed Beige Book
Apr 16 — Weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed index for April, industrial/manufacturing production for March
Apr 17 — Eurozone trade balance for February
Wednesday Pre: BAC, PGR, PNC, MS, MTB
Wednesday Post: HOMB, SLG
Thursday Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, PEP, PLD, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
Thursday Post: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
Limited visibility provided in source material beyond current week.