The SPX dropped -0.05% while the Nasdaq slipped -0.13% on Tuesday as stocks opened higher on Iran hopes and decent earnings but faded through the session. The R2K fell -0.35% while the Dow and equal-weight S&P held roughly flat. Brent rallied +0.90%, extending Monday's 5.50% surge. Gold declined -1.85% while silver slumped -3.70%. Bitcoin dipped -0.80% to around $75.7K. The DXY climbed +0.18%.
Treasuries saw selling pressure with yields rising 3-5 basis points across the curve as Fed expectations ticked hawkish. The market now prices in just 8 basis points worth of cuts this year.
The rough consensus expects an Iran agreement to be reached, but any deal is likely to be a vague MOU reducing tensions for several months rather than a comprehensive accord (also removing this upside catalyst for stocks). Q1 earnings have been quite encouraging over the past 1.5 weeks, though today's aerospace/defense results disappointed on guidance. Retail sales were bolstered by a sharp 15.5% monthly spike in gas station sales, reflecting higher fuel costs rather than underlying strength.
US/Iran talks are set for Wednesday in Pakistan, with a Vance-led delegation traveling Tuesday after Iran's Supreme Leader gave the green light Monday night for Iranian negotiations (Axios). US officials express confidence that peace talks will proceed, though Trump's public comments are hampering the process (Reuters, CNN). Iranian officials privately say they're preparing to resume talks despite domestic hard-liner pressure (NYT).
UNH delivered strong Q1 results with EPS of $7.23 vs. Street estimate of $6.57, driven by slightly higher revenue ($111.7B vs. $109.24B) and a favorable medical cost ratio of 83.9% (170 basis points better than plan), prompting raised full-year guidance.
DHI reported modest Q1 upside with EPS of $2.24 vs. Street's $2.14, driven by higher margins while bookings were solid at +11% to 25K homes vs. consensus 23.9K, with prior full-year guidance largely reiterated.
GE posted strong Q1 EPS upside at $1.86 vs. Street's $1.60, with sales surging +29% to $11.6B and monster bookings performance jumping 87% to $23B (book-to-bill nearly 2x), now trending toward high-end of prior guidance.
TSCO disappointed with Q1 EPS of $0.31 vs. Street's $0.34, missing on weaker comps (+0.5% vs. +1.6% expected) and lower margins, though maintaining prior full-year guidance.
April 22 — Indonesia rate decision (3:20am ET)
April 22-24 — Google Cloud conference (opening keynote 12pm ET Wednesday)
April 23 — South Korea Q1 GDP report (Wednesday night)
Tuesday After Close: ADC, CALX, CB, COF, EQT, EWBC, HWC, IBKR, ISRG, MANH, MCRI, OZK, PEGA, RRC, SON, UAL, WAL, WRB, WRFD
Wednesday Pre-Market: BA, BKU, BSX, CME, DCOM, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, MHO, NVR, ONB, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, TMHC, TNL, VRT, WAB
Wednesday After Close: AZZ, BANC, BANR, CACI, CCI, CHDN, CSX, FAF, FR, FULT, GGG, GL, GTY, HLX, HXL, IBM, KALU, KMI, KNX, LBRT, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MEDP, MOH, NOW, OII, PKG, RJF, ROL, RS, TSLA, TXN, URI, WEX
No specific earnings dates provided for the following two weeks beyond Wednesday's schedule.