SPX declined -1.01% while the Nasdaq dropped -1.63%. The Dow fell 380 points (-0.82%) and the R2K sank 20 points (-0.82%). Brent crude climbed ~0.75% to ~$110.60, gold slid -0.40%, silver fell -3.10%, and Bitcoin dropped -2.85% to ~$67.84K. The DXY dipped -0.13%.
Treasuries saw pressure with yields rising 2-5 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations hold steady with markets still pricing no Funds Rate action this year.
The combination of Trump's extremely truculent rhetoric ("A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again"), skeptical media reporting suggesting the US and Iran remain far apart in negotiations, and ongoing military strikes is casting a shadow over equities. However, an offramp remains more likely than deliberate chaos given that escalatory options are all various degrees of bad and main American strategic objectives have been achieved. This doesn't mean a deal will be reached by tonight's 8pm ET deadline, but the stagflationary impact of five weeks of fighting will be significant.
- Hopes fade for US-Iran deal by tonight's deadline as sources suggest the sides remain far apart (WSJ)
- Iran submitted a 10-point proposal demanding guarantees not to be attacked, end to Lebanon war, and sanctions termination—Trump called it a "significant step" but "not good enough" (NYT)
- Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey working to broker agreement; Trump may push deadline if deal materializes (Axios)
- Pentagon refining civilian infrastructure target list to mitigate war crime charges should bombing proceed (Politico)
- Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly unconscious and receiving medical treatment, raising questions about who's running the country (London Times)
AAPL encounters engineering and production setbacks on its foldable iPhone that could delay the launch timeline (Nikkei). ASO issued upside Q1 comp guidance of +2-3% versus Street estimates of +1.7%. BX closed on a $10 billion opportunistic credit fund despite elevated macro anxiety around private credit (WSJ). GILD will acquire Tubulis GmbH for $3.15 billion cash upfront plus up to $1.85 billion in milestone payments. HTZ and CAR shares jumped following a spike in March's Manheim used car index. INTC will work on SpaceX/Tesla's Terafab project to help refactor silicon fab technology. IVZ faces increased QQQ competition as State Street follows BlackRock in launching Nasdaq 100 trackers (Bloomberg). PSKY shares jumped after entering equity subscription agreements with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds for the Warner deal.
APR 7 — US consumer credit for Feb (3pm ET), Trump Iran deadline (8pm ET)
APR 8 — FOMC minutes from Mar 18 meeting (2pm ET)
APR 9 — US personal income/spending for Feb (8:30am ET), US PCE for Feb (8:30am ET), US GDP Q4 revisions (8:30am ET)
APR 10 — US CPI for Mar (8:30am ET), Michigan sentiment survey for Apr (10am ET)
Tuesday After: GBX, LEVI
Wednesday Before: DAL, RPM
Wednesday After: APLD, PSMT, STZ
Thursday Before: SMPL
Thursday After: WDFC
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