SPX +1.15%, Nasdaq +1.55%, Dow +345 points/+0.77%, R2K +33 points/+1.37%. Treasury yields flat to down 4 basis points. DXY dipping 0.40%. Brent up ~0.30% to ~$107.75, gold advancing ~2.00%, silver climbing 4.50%. Bitcoin roughly flat.
Treasury yields are flat to down 4 basis points across the curve. Markets are pricing in 7 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, reflecting cautious optimism about geopolitical de-escalation.
The rally has legs, driven primarily by Trump administration signals that it may wind down the Iran war without securing Hormuz (WSJ). This removes the tail risk of a sustained ground campaign that had markets spooked. Equal-weight SPX lagging suggests some concentration risk remains, but broad sector rotation into cyclicals signals genuine risk-on sentiment. The Iran situation remains fluid, but markets are clearly betting on de-escalation.
• Trump tells aides he's willing to walk away from Iran war without reopening Hormuz, as seizing control would require extended military campaign beyond 4-6 week timeline (WSJ)
• Iran's remaining government struggling to make decisions following ongoing war and assassination of senior leaders, though security services continue functioning (NYT)
• Iran pushing Houthis to resume Red Sea shipping attacks if US escalates further (Bloomberg)
• Gulf allies pressing White House to continue fighting until Iran decisively defeated (AP)
BIIB acquiring APLS for $41/share cash (~$5.6B) plus CVR worth up to $2/share. APLS closed Monday at $17.09.
LLY buying CNTA for $38/share cash (~$6.3B) plus CVR worth up to $9/share (~$1.5B), total value up to $47. CNTA closed Monday at $27.58.
MKC reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 66¢ vs Street 59¢, revenue $1.87B vs Street $1.79B. Formally announced combination with Unilever's food business in Reverse Morris Trust structure where Unilever will own ~2/3 of new entity.
FDS beat Q2 EPS with $4.46 vs Street $4.37, driven by 6.8% organic revenue growth vs Street 6%, raising full-year guidance.
MRVL announced deal with Nvidia for custom XPUs and NVLink Fusion-compatible networking, with Nvidia investing $2B into Marvell.
SNX crushed Q1 with EPS $4.73 vs Street $3.29, sales $17.16B vs Street $15.55B, guiding Q2 EPS $4 vs Street $3.45.
APR 1 — ADP jobs report (8:15amET), US retail sales for Feb (8:30amET), manufacturing ISM (10amET)
APR 2 — Weekly jobless claims, US trade numbers for Feb, factory/capital goods orders
APR 3 — US jobs report for March (8:30amET) - key test for Fed policy trajectory
Tuesday After Close: NCNO, NKE, PLAY, PVH, RH
Wednesday Pre-Market: CAG, CALM, LW, MSM, UNF
Wednesday After Close: PENG
Thursday Pre-Market: AYI, LNN
No specific earnings calendar provided for the following two weeks beyond this week's schedule.