The SPX gained +0.34% while the Nasdaq jumped +0.91%, though underlying breadth remained weak with the equal-weight S&P falling -0.20% and Dow dropping 196 points. The R2K managed a modest +0.11% gain. Brent crude ticked up +0.35% to ~$95.13, gold fell -0.55%, silver rallied +0.57%, and Bitcoin traded roughly flat. The DXY held steady.
Treasury yields faced modest pressure, rising 2-3 basis points across the curve as markets digested mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments.
Markets are extending gains on Iran peace hopes and solid earnings, though the underlying action suggests caution—losses in equal-weight indices signal narrow leadership. The consensus is increasingly pricing in at least a ceasefire extension, which means signs of progress will soon stop providing upside fuel. Bank management commentary has been encouraging about macro resilience despite the war, and we're still early enough in Q1 reporting for positive surprises to drive momentum. The key will be whether breadth improves as more sectors participate in any rally.
Trump indicated in multiple interviews that the Iran war is "very close to being over," telling Fox the situation could see "amazing" developments in the next two days (Fox, Bloomberg, NY Post). The Pentagon is simultaneously moving thousands of additional troops into the Middle East as a precautionary measure (Washington Post). Europe is quietly preparing NATO alternatives in case Trump pulls the US from the alliance (WSJ). Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested US tariffs could return to pre-SCOTUS decision levels by July (Bloomberg).
BAC delivered strong Q1 results with EPS of $1.11 beating the Street's $1.01 estimate, driven by higher revenue ($30.3B vs. $30B expected), lower provisions ($1.3B vs. $1.5B), and improved efficiency ratio of 61% that beat by 80 basis points. Full-year NII guidance was raised.
MS posted impressive Q1 EPS upside at $3.43 versus the Street's $2.98, with sales of $20.58B topping the $19.7B estimate. The efficiency ratio improved 300 basis points year-over-year to 65%, beating expectations by roughly 280 basis points.
PNC beat Q1 EPS expectations with $4.32 excluding items versus the Street's $4.14, helped by higher NII/NIM and expense controls. The core efficiency ratio came in about 190 basis points better than anticipated, though fee income disappointed due to mortgage servicing rights valuation declines.
ASML reported solid Q1 EPS of €7.15 versus €6.65 expected, raising full-year sales guidance to €36-40B from the Street's €34-39B. Management expressed optimism about chip demand outpacing supply, though Q2 sales guidance of €8.4-9B fell slightly short of the €9.05B estimate.
SNAP announced a 16% workforce reduction affecting 1,000 employees, targeting over $500 million in annual cost savings (Reuters).
PZZA is reportedly in takeover talks with Irth Capital, with a potential agreement expected by early May earnings (Reuters).
April 16 — US weekly jobless claims (8:30am ET), Philadelphia Fed index for April (8:30am ET), industrial/manufacturing production for March (9:15am ET)
April 17 — Eurozone trade balance for February (5am ET)
April 15 After Close: HOMB, SLG
April 16 Pre-Market: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, PLD, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
April 16 After Close: AA, NFLX
April 17 Pre-Market: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
The newsletter does not provide earnings guidance beyond this week's schedule.