The SPX climbed +0.83% while the Nasdaq surged +1.19%. The Dow rallied 380 points (+0.78%) and the R2K gained 17.7 points (+0.64%). Brent crude spiked ~2.95% to $101.40 after Iran seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold advanced ~0.40% while silver rallied 1.70%. Bitcoin surged 4.30% to around $79K. The DXY ticked up 0.10%.
Treasury yields remained flat to up just 1 basis point across the curve. Fed expectations are holding steady with no material shifts in rate outlook following the stable bond market performance.
Stocks are trading well on Iran ceasefire hopes and solid earnings momentum, though the equal-weight S&P is notably lagging the cap-weighted index. Trump's indefinite (though potentially just 3-5 day) ceasefire suspension signals White House reluctance to escalate kinetically, removing a key risk overhang. The Q1 earnings season remains very encouraging with widespread beat-and-reiterate or beat-and-raise reports across sectors. While fuel-exposed companies like airlines are seeing bottom-line pressure from the war, it hasn't been a material headwind for most firms yet. A US-Iran deal could materialize quickly if face-to-face meetings proceed (potentially as soon as Friday per NY Post reports).
• The US and Iran have made significant progress behind the scenes on key issues including Iran's nuclear program and could strike a deal quickly if the two sides meet (WSJ)
• Trump's ceasefire suspension will only last "another 3-5 days" with White House officials still believing a deal is possible despite divisions within Tehran's government (Axios)
• Iran's military maintains significant capabilities despite recent US/Israeli bombing campaigns (NBC News)
• The US has significantly depleted its stockpiles of critical missiles during the Iran conflict (CNN)
BA delivered Q1 results that weren't as bad as feared with EPS of -$0.20 versus Street estimates of -$0.74, free cash flow of -$1.5B versus -$2.6B expected, and sales rising 14% to $22.21B versus $21.8B expected. The backlog grew to $695B from $682B in Q4.
BBY selected Jason Bonfig, the company's Chief Customer, Product and Fulfillment Officer, to succeed Corie Barry as CEO.
BSX reported Q1 EPS of $0.80 and operational revenue growth of 9.4%, both roughly in line with Street expectations, but cut full-year guidance to sales growth of 6.5-8% from prior 10-11% with EPS of $3.34-3.41 versus prior $3.43-3.49.
ELV posted the second beat-and-raise from a large-cap managed care firm with Q1 EPS of $12.58 versus Street $11.00, raising full-year EPS guidance to at least $26.75 from prior at least $25.50.
GEV delivered solid EBITDA upside at $896MM versus Street $791MM driven by margin expansion (EBITDA margins jumped 390 basis points year-over-year to 9.6% versus Street 8.7%) and revenue of $9.33B versus $9.1B expected. Bookings soared 71% organically.
MAS reported strong Q1 EPS upside at $1.04 versus Street $0.88 driven by higher sales ($1.918B versus $1.836B expected) and better margins (operating margins of 16.9% were 160 basis points ahead of plan).
PM delivered solid Q1 upside with EPS of $1.96 versus Street $1.85 and organic revenue growth of 2.7% versus 1.4% expected, driven by strength in both smoke-free (5.3% organic growth) and combustibles (0.9% growth).
T reported modest upside with total revenue rising 2.9% to $31.5B versus Street $31.25B and EPS of $0.57 versus $0.55 expected, while reiterating prior guidance.
UAL posted modest Q1 adjusted EPS upside at $1.19 versus Street $1.09, but Q2 EPS guidance of $1-2 falls short of Street $1.75 due to surging fuel costs from the Middle East conflict.
Apr 23 — US weekly claims (8:30am ET), US flash PMIs for April (9:45am ET)
Apr 23 — Eurozone flash PMIs for April (4am ET)
Apr 24 — German IFO survey for April (4am ET), final Michigan sentiment for April (10am ET)
Wednesday After Close: TSLA, IBM, TXN, LRCX, CSX, NOW, LUV, LVS, KMI, URI
Thursday Pre-Market: AAL, AXP, BX, CMCSA, DOV, DOW, FCX, HON, LMT, NEE, TMO, UNP
Thursday After Close: INTC, NEM, BKR
Friday Pre-Market: CHTR, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB