The SPX climbed +2.11% while the Nasdaq advanced +2.55%. The Dow rallied 1055 points (+2.26%) and the R2K spiked +2.72%. Treasuries saw muted gains with yields down 1-3 basis points across the curve. The DXY slid -1.05%, Brent crude tumbled ~13% to ~$95.10, Gold rose +0.90%, Silver jumped +2.80%, and Bitcoin advanced +2.50% to ~$71K.
Treasury rallies remained fairly muted despite the geopolitical relief, with yields down only 1-3 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations pivoted modestly dovish, with markets now pricing in 10 basis points worth of rate cuts this year.
Stocks are rallying as investors breathe a sigh of relief about the 2-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though the meager Treasury rally raises questions about sustainability. Outstanding issues remain including ceasefire violations (Iran reportedly halted Hormuz traffic over alleged Israeli violations), the ongoing Lebanon war, potential Hormuz tolls, and crucial Washington-Tehran negotiations starting Friday in Pakistan. Despite these legitimate concerns, the ceasefire appears likely to hold. The broad-based rally spans travel, chips, housing, and financials while energy and defense contractors lag.
• Iran has reportedly halted Hormuz traffic due to alleged Israeli ceasefire violations, with plans to impose tolls on passing ships
• The first face-to-face U.S.-Iran meeting is scheduled for Friday in Pakistan as part of two-week ceasefire negotiations
• Republican Clay Fuller won Georgia's special House election by only ~12 points, down sharply from Trump's 37-point margin in 2024 (NYT)
• Democratic-backed candidate won Wisconsin's Supreme Court election in a 20-point landslide (Politico)
DAL reported Q1 EPS of 64¢ vs. Street 57¢ despite higher fuel costs, driven by robust demand and operating revenue of $14.2B vs. Street $14.07B. Management highlighted "broad demand strength across corporate and leisure" and said revenue strength will persist in Q2.
RPM delivered significant Q3 EPS upside at 57¢ vs. Street 36¢, driven by higher sales and robust margins. Prior Q4 guidance was reaffirmed.
LEVI posted solid Q1 EPS of 42¢ vs. Street 37¢, with revenue up 14% headline and 9% organic to $1.742B vs. Street $1.648B. Operating margins of 12.5% beat plan by nearly 50 basis points, and F26 guidance is moving higher.
XOM warned of a ~$4.3B quarter-over-quarter profit drop in Q1, representing a sharp shortfall vs. consensus forecast of a ~$600MM increase, though EPS is expected to rise excluding "unfavorable timing effects."
F was rebuffed by the White House on aluminum tariff relief requests following a fire at the Novelis NY facility (WSJ).
April 9 — German exports and industrial production for Feb (2amET), US personal income/spending for Feb (8:30amET), US PCE for Feb (8:30amET), US GDP revisions for Q4 (8:30amET)
April 10 — Taiwan imports/exports for Mar (4amET), US-Iran meeting in Pakistan, US CPI for Mar (8:30amET), Michigan sentiment survey for Apr (10amET)
April 14 — Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing before Senate Banking Committee (Thursday)
Wednesday Post: APLD, PSMT, STZ
Thursday Pre: SMPL
Thursday Post: WDFC
Friday: None listed
Monday 4/13 Pre: GS
Tuesday 4/14 Pre: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday 4/15 Pre: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday 4/15 Post: SLG
Thursday 4/16 Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday 4/16 Post: AA, NFLX
Friday 4/17 Pre: RF, STT, TFC