S&P futures +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.11%, Dow +0.31%, R2K +0.38%. European indices up 0.25-0.50% led by tech and luxury. Asian markets mostly declined: Nikkei -1.75%, Hang Seng -0.89%, Shanghai -0.1%. NFLX down ~9.8% pre-market. Brent -2.00% to ~$97.40, Gold flat, Silver +1.50%, Bitcoin +0.90%, DXY -0.13%.
Treasuries stable with yields flat to down 1 basis point across the curve. Warsh's confirmation hearing scheduled for Tuesday 4/21, with the Fed entering quiet period ahead of the April 29th decision.
The Iran détente narrative has become consensus, reducing its upside potency even as Trump claims Tehran agreed to abandon nuclear ambitions. Data center construction delays and supply chain bottlenecks from the Middle East conflict will create persistent stagflationary pressures, with Brent's "new normal" likely $80-95 versus the pre-war $60-70 range. The trucking sector shows encouraging signs of capacity tightening, potentially marking a turning point for freight conditions.
• Trump expressed optimism about Iran deal, claiming Tehran agreed to hand over enriched uranium and abandon nuclear weapons plans, with Pakistani sources suggesting a MOU could be signed soon (Washington Post, Reuters)
• Israel and Lebanon will observe a 10-day ceasefire as tensions ease across the region
• Oil tankers rushing to US to buy American energy products amid Middle East disruptions (Nikkei)
• UK's Starmer faces fresh resignation calls over Mandelson scandal (FT)
NFLX reported Q1 revenue of $12.25B (+16.2% vs. Street $12.17B) driven by membership growth and higher ad revenue, with robust free cash flow of $5.094B vs. Street $2.66B (boosted by WBD termination fee). However, operating margins missed at 32.3% vs. 32.4% expected, and Q2 guidance disappointed with revenue of $12.57B vs. Street $12.64B and margins of 32.6% vs. 34.4%. Management noted recent price increases "have gone well" and advertising revenue on track for $3B in 2026.
KNX warned Q1 EPS would hit just 9c versus Street's 26c due to multiple headwinds, but Q2 guidance of 45-49c remains inline with 48c consensus. Management struck an optimistic tone on freight conditions improving through Q1, echoing capacity tightening themes. Despite the earnings miss, the overall message suggests trucking industry evolution for the better.
AA missed across the board with Q1 EPS of $1.40 vs. Street $1.57, EBITDA of $595MM vs. $665MM expected, and sales of $3.193B vs. $3.26B, citing Middle East war headwinds and Cyclone Narelle impacts (various sources).
4/21 — US retail sales for March (8:30amET), Warsh Fed confirmation hearing
4/23 — US flash PMIs for April (9:45amET)
4/29 — Fed rate decision
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