US equity futures are sharply lower with the S&P down -0.55% and Nasdaq falling -0.63%. The Dow dropped -0.47% while the R2K declined -0.92%. European markets are down 70-100 basis points with energy the only major sector posting gains (+90 basis points). Asian markets showed mixed results with Japan's Nikkei down -0.74% and China's Shanghai Composite up +0.06%. Brent crude surged +7.7% to $102.50, while gold fell -0.6% and silver dropped -2.05%. Bitcoin declined -2.7% Sunday and continued falling -0.9% Monday morning to $70.72K. The DXY rallied +0.32%.
Treasuries are under modest pressure with yields up 2-3 basis points across the curve. The market is pricing in essentially no movement on the Fed funds rate for the remainder of the year. Fed Chair confirmation uncertainty continues as it appears increasingly unlikely that Warsh will be confirmed before Powell's term ends on May 15th (FT).
The equity declines aren't as catastrophic as weekend media coverage suggested from the Pakistan meetings. While the S&P is bumping up against the 6900-7000 pre-war resistance zone, upside potential remains limited for now given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The conflict appears on a trajectory toward resolution (or at least sustained détente similar to post-Iraq War), though significant economic fallout from what's already occurred is inevitable. Trump seems to be pivoting away from kinetic escalation, reducing appetite for resumed bombing campaigns or ground troop deployment.
• US-Iran high-level talks in Pakistan stretched nearly 24 hours with Trump stating "the meeting went well" and "most points were agreed to," though no final deal emerged (Washington Post)
• US Navy Hormuz blockade set to begin 10am ET Monday, focused on interdicting Iranian port traffic rather than all vessels through the waterway
• US/Israel/Lebanon negotiations scheduled to take place in Washington this week
• Hungary's opposition Tisza party won landslide victory, defeating Orban with projected 138 of 199 parliamentary seats (FT)
• China will resume some Taiwan ties including direct flights and aquaculture imports (NBC News)
GS reports earnings before the open Monday. The AI compute crisis is forcing significant user access limitations across the industry, with firms like Anthropic imposing restrictions due to massive shortage (WSJ).
MCD will introduce energy drinks and specialty sodas, pricing them below competitors like SBUX and BROS to drive growth (WSJ).
META is building an AI avatar of Mark Zuckerberg for employee interactions (FT). Anthropic is rapidly gaining ground against OpenAI among US business customers, with ChatGPT's weekly active users falling month-over-month in March for the first time since early 2024 (FT).
CSGP Third Point has exited its position and won't pursue a proxy fight (Reuters).
TSLA received approval from Netherlands for its self-driving software, the first European country to do so (Reuters).
SNDK will join the Nasdaq 100 on 4/20, replacing TEAM.
April 13 — India CPI for March (6:30am ET), US existing home sales for March (10am ET)
April 14 — US PPI for March
April 15 — US import/export prices for March, Fed Beige Book (afternoon)
April 16 — China retail sales/industrial production for March
April 13-18 — IMF/World Bank Spring meetings in Washington
Monday Pre: FAST, GS
Monday Post: LVMH
Tuesday Pre: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC; Kering
Wednesday Pre: BAC, PNC, MS, ASML, Hermes
Wednesday Post: SLG
Thursday Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB; Entain, Pernod Ricard
Thursday Post: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre: RF, STT, TFC, Ericsson
Data not provided in source material.