SPX -0.45%, Nasdaq -0.46%, Dow -0.54%, R2K -0.81%. Major Eurozone indices down 110-140 basis points with weakness in autos, industrials, and tech. Asian markets mostly positive with gains of 20-77 basis points. Brent +5.80% to ~$95.62, Gold -0.70%, Silver -1.75%, Bitcoin flat at $74.75K, DXY +0.20%.
Treasuries down modestly with yields flat to up 2 basis points. Market pricing 12 basis points worth of Fed cuts this year, with odds of a single 25 basis point reduction by year-end creeping higher.
While Middle East news flow was net negative over the weekend, the trajectory remains toward deescalation with face-to-face talks set for Tuesday in Pakistan. Since an Iran resolution is roughly consensus (albeit with more skeptics this morning), the bulk of the geopolitical rally appears largely complete. The real focus shifts to an earnings-heavy week featuring key names like Tesla, Intel, IBM, and Procter & Gamble. Q1 results have been encouraging so far, particularly banks sending "status quo" signals about the underlying US economy.
• Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for negotiations despite weekend suggestions it wouldn't participate (Nikkei)
• UAE reaches out to US Treasury about FX swap line in case of financial stress from Iran war fallout (WSJ)
• US Navy utilizing unmanned ships and subs to help clear mines from Hormuz (WSJ)
• European allies worry White House sending inexperienced negotiators for quick but flimsy deal (Reuters)
• Trump's approval sinks to 37% while disapproval rises to 63% including 50% who disapprove strongly (NBC News)
AAL rejected merger overtures from UAL (WSJ). The proposed combination would have created a massive domestic carrier but faces significant regulatory hurdles.
BLD will be purchased by QXO for $505/share in a deal worth ~$17B. Holders can elect $505 cash or 20.2 QXO shares with final split of 45% cash/55% stock.
LLY nearing deal to buy privately held Kelonia Therapeutics for more than $2B (WSJ). The acquisition would bolster Lilly's cancer pipeline.
META will cut ~10% of workforce next month (about 8K people) with additional reductions planned later in the year (Reuters). Latest large-scale RIF action by prominent tech firm.
MRVL working with GOOGL on two custom chip types: memory processing unit for TPUs and new TPU for inferencing market (The Information).
CRM CEO Benioff thinks software bears wrong about company and legacy SaaS industry, planning to launch AI platform "Agent Albert" by year-end (WSJ).
April 21 — US retail sales for March, Warsh Fed confirmation hearing
April 22 — Iran ceasefire deadline (likely to be extended if no deal reached)
April 23 — US flash PMIs for April
Monday: CLF (pre), STLD/ZION (post)
Tuesday: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, HAL, MMM, NOC, RTX, UNH (pre); CB, COF, ISRG, UAL (post)
Wednesday: BA, BSX, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, VRT (pre); CCI, CSX, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI (post)
Thursday: AAL, AXP, BX, CMCSA, DOW, FCX, HON, KDP, LMT, PHM, TMO, UNP (pre); BKR, INTC, NEM, SAP (post)
Friday: CHTR, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB (pre)