S&P futures +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.65%, Dow +0.15%, R2K +0.72%. Asian markets mixed with Japan's Nikkei +0.55% and Korea's KOSPI +1.36%. Brent crude bleeding lower down ~150 basis points to ~$107.40. Gold climbing 0.50% to ~$4,699, silver also up 0.50% to ~$73.38. Bitcoin spiking 3.30% to ~$69.9K. DXY not reported.
Treasuries seeing modest weakness with yields up 1-2 basis points across the curve. The market is pricing in no movement on the Fed Funds Rate this year. FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 2pmET.
Despite Iran dominating headlines, Trump faces only poor military options (civilian infrastructure bombing, militarily reopening Hormuz, seizing enriched uranium) with massive costs attached. Given key US objectives have been achieved (degrading Iran's nuclear and military capabilities), the administration will likely seek offramps rather than escalation. This means SPX risks are to the upside, though 6900-7000 should remain a firm ceiling. Iran's granting Iraq permission to use Hormuz could provide White House deescalation pretext.
• Reports of "frantic" efforts by mediators to reach 45-day US-Iran ceasefire deal ahead of Trump's Tuesday 8pmET deadline, though odds of agreement within 48 hours remain "slim" (Axios, NYT, Reuters)
• Israel killed IRGC intelligence chief Monday, vowed to "hunt down" Tehran's leaders "one by one" (AP)
• Iran still possesses significant missile and drone capabilities despite intense strikes (CNN, NYT)
• Iran cleared Iraq to use Strait of Hormuz, expanding permitted countries list including China, Russia, India, Pakistan (WSJ, Newsweek)
• French container ship passed through Hormuz Friday, first Western vessel since war began (BBC)
• Trump's aides argue Iran's civilian infrastructure legitimate military target for nuclear/missile program rebuilding potential (WSJ)
SLNO (Soleno) in talks for acquisition by NBIX (Neurocrine) in deal worth >$2.5B, with SLNO shareholders potentially receiving $50-55 per share (FT).
AMZN will impose 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party merchants selling on its platform due to elevated energy costs (WSJ).
NVO CEO says weight-loss drug industry currently reaching only 10-15% of eligible US population, highlighting tremendous expansion opportunity (FT).
Samsung Electronics expected to report massive Q1 operating profit surge and ~50% sales spike in preliminary results this week, though memory cycle outlook remains key investor focus (Reuters).
PARA set to secure ~$24B in equity commitments from three Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds for Warner deal (WSJ).
Monday — US Services ISM March at 10amET
Wednesday — FOMC minutes at 2pmET
Thursday — February PCE inflation data
Friday — March CPI data
Tuesday PM: LEVI
Wednesday AM: DAL
Samsung preliminary Q1 results Monday night (expecting massive profit surge).