SPX +0.50%, Nasdaq +0.47%, Dow +0.44%, R2K +0.57%. European indices up 45-50 basis points with basic resources and energy outperforming while banks and retail lag. Asian markets broadly sold off with Japan's Topix -2.94% and Korea's KOSPI -2.97%, though mainland China managed modest gains. Brent crude surging +2.30% to $115+ on Middle East supply concerns. Gold +0.80%, Silver +1.50%, Bitcoin +1.50% to $67.5K. DXY ticking up 12 basis points while JPY rallies 40 basis points on intervention rhetoric.
Treasuries catching a modest bid with yields down 3-4 basis points across the curve. Markets pricing zero Fed action for the remainder of the year, with 70-75 basis points of hikes expected from the ECB and BOE, and roughly 50 basis points from the BOJ.
US equities are staging a tentative rebound driven by extremely oversold conditions and Trump's surprisingly optimistic rhetoric about Iranian peace talks. However, any escalation-driven rally should be faded — the SPX faced stiff resistance at 6900-7000 even before this crisis began. Even if Trump declares victory and reaches a deal, the conflict's lasting ramifications will weigh on markets for months. The administration appears to be searching for an offramp given the lack of easy military options and the catastrophic risks of further escalation.
• Trump claims Iran has agreed to most points in a 15-point peace proposal, calling new leadership "very reasonable," though Tehran publicly downplays talk progress (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Iran allows 20 additional ships through Hormuz, which Trump hails as progress; Pakistan offers to host "meaningful" talks (NYT, Reuters)
• Pentagon preparing for "weeks" of ground operations, while Trump considers seizing Iran's uranium stockpile or Kharg Island oil facilities (Washington Post, WSJ, FT)
• Critical US base in Saudi Arabia struck by Iran, injuring 12 troops and destroying valuable E-3 aircraft (NYT, Bloomberg)
• Houthis enter conflict by firing missiles at Israel, dramatically escalating regional tensions (FT, Reuters)
APO (Apollo) is evaluating Austin, south Florida, or Nashville for its second US headquarters as the firm continues its geographic expansion (FT).
Universal Music Group shares rallying on announcement of €500M share buyback program, with management citing "meaningful dislocation" in the company's market valuation relative to its strong balance sheet and cash generation capabilities.
OpenAI was forced to kill its Sora video generation product after it consumed excessive computing infrastructure while generating insufficient revenue to justify the costs (WSJ).
March 30 — Powell participates in moderated Harvard discussion at 10:30am ET (tone likely similar to March 18 FOMC press conference)
April 13 week — Potential confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Warsh (Reuters)
No earnings data provided in newsletter.
No earnings data provided in newsletter.