US equity futures are mixed: SPX +0.07%, Dow +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.33%, R2K flat. Asian markets rallied with Japan's Nikkei +2.38%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.72%, and Korea's KOSPI +2.21%. Brent crude climbs 150 basis points to ~$96.40 despite ceasefire optimism. Gold rises 50 basis points while silver advances 100 basis points. Bitcoin ticks down 20 basis points. DXY remains unchanged.
Treasuries are quiet with yields flattish across the curve. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned core inflation will likely stay around 100 basis points above the 2% target for the rest of the year. The White House continues pressuring Powell to step down or face termination.
While early Q1 earnings have been positively surprising (especially bank CEOs signaling stable macro conditions), the SPX's 11%+ month-to-date rally has pushed the index into overbought territory—the time to aggressively buy has ended. A Middle East détente is becoming consensus, meaning ceasefire headlines will lose their market-moving power. The economy won't escape Iran's impact unscathed—stagflationary effects will likely persist through summer or fall, even as immediate disruption has been less severe than feared.
• US-Iran ceasefire could be extended another two weeks to allow more negotiation time, with Israel contemplating a short-term Lebanon ceasefire (Reuters)
• Iran may permit ships to sail freely through the Oman side of Hormuz Strait, allowing it to claim continued control while unlocking shipping (Reuters)
• Pentagon reportedly ramping up secret planning for possible Cuba operation (USA Today)
• Chinese AI firms could face penalties for illegally copying US models (Bloomberg)
TSM reported Q1 EPS upside driven by robust margins, raised Q2 guidance above expectations, and increased full-year revenue outlook to >30% vs. prior "close to 30%" with bullish AI demand commentary.
JBHT delivered Q1 EPS of $1.49 vs. Street $1.44 and sales of $3.06B vs. $2.95B, with management saying the truckload market may be at a positive inflection point due to regulatory capacity removal.
PPG preannounced Q1 EPS upside at $1.83 vs. Street $1.71 driven by higher prices and cost cuts, while announcing price increases up to 20% due to Iran war-related input cost spikes.
BF.B received a $32/share takeout bid from Sazerac (WSJ). OGN has attracted takeover interest from Sun Pharma and Grunenthal (Bloomberg). PZZA is in talks with Irth Capital about a buyout deal potentially completed by early May earnings (Reuters).
April 16 — Weekly jobless claims (8:30amET), Philadelphia Fed index (8:30amET), industrial/manufacturing production (9:15amET)
April 17 — Eurozone trade balance (5amET)
Thursday Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, PLD, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday Post: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
[No specific earnings calendar provided for the following two weeks beyond Friday April 17]