US equity futures are down this morning with SPX -0.43%, Nasdaq -0.42%, alongside Dow -196 points and R2K -19.8 points. Asian markets mostly fell overnight with notable weakness in Korea KOSPI (-1.61%) and Japan (-0.73%). Brent crude is surging +3.40% to ~$98 after touching lows near $90.40 Wednesday morning. Gold is up 0.30% while Bitcoin holds steady around $71.3K. The DXY is ticking down 0.10%.
Treasuries are trading flat across the curve despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, which represents a notable red flag given the market's inability to rally on safe-haven flows. The Fed funds market is pricing in just 7 basis points of rate cuts this year, with expectations largely unchanged.
Markets are giving back some of Wednesday's rally as investors remain on edge about the fragile ceasefire, though technical imbalances (lean long positioning, negative sentiment) suggest more upside ahead if the détente holds. The SPX was already struggling with 6900-7000 resistance before the war, making that range even stronger now. However, Treasury's failure to rally signals inflation risks from the conflict may be more durable than anticipated, especially with March CPI expected to show sharp acceleration on Friday. Consumer-linked companies (DAL, LEVI, WMT) sounded surprisingly sanguine about the macro backdrop even before ceasefire effects kicked in.
Vice President Vance will lead a US delegation to Pakistan for face-to-face talks with Iranian officials this weekend, marking the next major diplomatic milestone (Axios). Israel has promised Washington it will dial back strikes against Hezbollah for two weeks during negotiations, though Lebanon remains outside the formal ceasefire (Axios). The White House warns against premature victory laps, noting Iran's regime remains entrenched with powerful missile capabilities and continued control over Hormuz (WSJ). Iran plans to charge a $1/barrel "tolling fee" payable in bitcoin for all tankers moving through Hormuz, ensuring lasting risk premiums on commodity flows (FT). The Trump administration is considering shifting US troops out of countries deemed unhelpful during the Iran campaign (WSJ).
APLD reported blowout Q3 results with revenue surging 139% to $126.6MM (vs. Street $76.5MM) and EBITDA of $44.1MM (vs. Street $20.7MM), though free cash flow was deeply negative at -$720MM due to massive capex spending of $775MM. STZ beat Q4 expectations with EPS of $1.90 (vs. Street $1.73) on revenue of $1.92B (vs. Street $1.87B), driven by strength in both Beer and Wine & Spirits divisions, but FY27 guidance disappointed with EPS midpoint of $11.55 (vs. Street $12.44). DIS is planning to cut as many as 1,000 jobs in coming weeks under new CEO leadership (WSJ).
April 9 — US PCE for February at 8:30am ET (Street expects headline unchanged at +2.8% Y/Y, core cooling to +3.0%)
April 10 — US CPI for March at 8:30am ET (Street looking for sharp acceleration to +3.4% headline vs. +2.4% in February)
April 10 — US-Iran meeting commences in Pakistan (Saturday morning Pakistan time)
Thursday Pre: SMPL
Thursday Post: WDFC
Monday 4/13 Pre: GS
Tuesday 4/14 Pre: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Wednesday 4/15 Pre: BAC, PNC, MS
Wednesday 4/15 Post: SLG
Thursday 4/16 Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB
Thursday 4/16 Post: AA, NFLX
Friday 4/17 Pre: RF, STT, TFC