US futures are rallying hard this morning with S&P +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.47%, Dow +0.18%, and R2K +0.55%. Asian markets posted solid gains with Nikkei +2.43% and KOSPI +2.74%. DXY continues sliding -0.17%, Brent dips -1.15% to ~$98.20, Gold advances +1.00%, Silver climbs +3.20%, and Bitcoin rallies +2.00% to ~$74.73K.
Treasuries have a modest bid with yields down 1-2 basis points across the curve. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed is right to take a "wait and see" approach on monetary policy given Iran war impacts (Semafor).
The renewed optimism around US-Iran détente talks (both sides reportedly still negotiating) should continue placing upward pressure on equities, especially with lean positioning and negative sentiment providing technical tailwinds. However, we're now firmly back in pre-war resistance around 6900-7000 on the SPX, and it's hard to argue the macro landscape is better than before the conflict started. After an 8.7% ramp in just a few sessions, risk/reward is turning increasingly neutral — even the bulls must acknowledge months of stagflationary headwinds ahead.
• Multiple reports suggest another face-to-face US-Iran meeting could happen before the current ceasefire expires next week (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• The two sides remain in "active talks" despite Pakistan meetings ending without a deal, focusing on extending ceasefire and securing permanent agreement (FT)
• Saudi Arabia is reportedly pressuring the White House to end the Hormuz blockade and return to negotiations (WSJ)
• US proposed 20-year uranium enrichment moratorium during Pakistan talks; Iran countered with "single digit" period (Axios, NYT)
• Oil market shortages set to worsen as final pre-war cargoes from Hormuz reach their destinations (FT)
LVMH missed overall organic revenue growth at +1% vs. +2% consensus, with Fashion & Leather down -2% vs. flat expectation. Management noted the Middle East conflict hurt organic revenue by ~1% — adding that back would have produced inline ~2% growth.
Imperial Brands shares slid in European trading after warning of macro risks from Middle East conflict and anticipating "modest aggregate share reduction across top five markets in H1."
BHP got relief as China eased some restrictions on its iron ore, permitting steel mills to buy BHP imports (Bloomberg).
United (UAL) has pitched a potential merger with American (AAL) to government officials, though such a deal would face significant regulatory scrutiny (Bloomberg).
Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Globalstar (GSAT) to bolster its Leo satellite service and compete with SpaceX's Starlink (Bloomberg).
Credo (CRDO) will acquire DustPhotonics for ~$875MM upfront ($125MM stock, $750MM cash) plus potential $430MM in contingent stock payments.
April 15 — US PPI for March at 8:30amET (consensus expects major acceleration to +4.6% Y/Y vs. +3.4% in February)
April 15 — IMF/World Bank economic outlook update (press briefing at 9amET)
April 15 — US-Israeli-Lebanese officials meeting in Washington (commencing ~11amET)
Tuesday Pre: BLK, C, JNJ, JPM, KMX, WFC
Tuesday Post: Kering
[No specific earnings calendar provided in source material]