S&P futures +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.30%, Dow +0.18%, R2K +0.11%. European indices up 15-35 basis points led by autos and tech. Asian markets mixed with Korea KOSPI +2.72% and Taiwan +1.75% standing out. Brent crude -0.80% to ~$94.75, Gold -0.70%, Silver -1.15%, Bitcoin +0.10% to ~$76.4K, DXY +0.15%.
Treasuries largely unchanged with yields flat to up 1 basis point across the curve. Fed expectations remain steady ahead of Warsh's confirmation hearing today, though his prepared remarks offered little insight into monetary policy direction.
The Iran situation remains the key driver here, and despite Trump's Monday bluster about being "highly unlikely" to extend the ceasefire, we're still on a deescalation trajectory. A vague MOU this week (involving Iran suspending enrichment and opening Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief) would provide significant equity upside given lingering skepticism. The stagflationary backdrop from Operation Epic Fury will persist regardless, keeping commodity risk premiums elevated for quarters to come. But any confirmed settlement should squeeze markets higher as geopolitical tail risk comes off the table.
• US-Iran face-to-face talks set for Wednesday in Pakistan with Vance-led delegation traveling today after Iran's Supreme Leader approved participation (Axios)
• US officials expressing confidence about peace talks proceeding despite weekend setbacks (Reuters)
• Trump's public comments and social media posts hampering negotiation progress according to sources (CNN)
• China's Xi calling for Hormuz to reopen in call with Saudi Crown Prince (SCMP)
• Japan removes restrictions on international arms sales in biggest export rule change in decades (Reuters)
AAPL names hardware chief John Ternus as new CEO effective September 1st, with Tim Cook becoming executive chairman. The succession comes earlier than many expected but Ternus was the widely anticipated choice. Cook's tenure saw market cap grow from ~$350B to ~$4T, with the pivot into services proving transformational for both margins and multiple.
AMZN announces additional $25B investment in Anthropic (including $5B immediately) as partnership deepens. Anthropic commits to spending over $100B on AWS technologies over next decade, including Amazon's custom Trainium and Graviton chips. The deal should drive AWS growth acceleration and validates Amazon's custom silicon strategy, though critics will note the circular financing structure.
ALK reported Q1 EPS of -1.68 essentially in-line but warned of massive $600M fuel headwind in Q2 (roughly $3.60 per share), highlighting profitability challenges for smaller carriers at current energy prices despite bullish 10% RASM guidance.
ZION beat Q1 EPS estimates at 1.56 vs 1.42 expected, though the upside was largely driven by provision tailwinds rather than operational strength. Revenue came in roughly in-line with modest efficiency deterioration.
April 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30am ET), Warsh confirmation hearing (10am ET), business inventories, pending home sales
April 22 — South Korea PPI, Japan trade data (Tuesday night)
Tuesday Pre-Market: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, MMM, NOC, RTX, SYF, UNH
Tuesday Post-Market: CB, COF, IBKR, ISRG, UAL
Wednesday Pre-Market: ASML, Boeing, T-Mobile
Wednesday Post-Market: Netflix, Tesla
Thursday Pre-Market: American Express, Procter & Gamble
Thursday Post-Market: Intel, Snap