US equity futures started modestly higher with SPX up +0.05%, Nasdaq flat, while Dow gained 62 points and R2K flat. European markets rallied broadly 65-75 basis points led by luxury and basic resources. Asian markets were mixed with Taiwan TAIEX surging +2.02%, Australia ASX 200 +1.74%, while Japan TPX gained +0.25%. DXY slid 20 basis points, Brent crude down 35 basis points to $109.40, gold rallied 90 basis points, silver up 20 basis points, and Bitcoin dipped 100 basis points to ~$69K.
Treasuries remained subdued with yields flat to down 1 basis point across the curve. Fed expectations held fairly steady as markets await Wednesday's FOMC minutes release at 2pmET.
The SPX faces upside risks as Trump's escalatory options against Iran remain prohibitively costly, likely forcing pursuit of an offramp despite bellicose rhetoric. However, the 6900-7000 ceiling that existed before the conflict will prove increasingly difficult to breach. Even if fighting ends imminently, a significant stagflationary burst from five weeks of conflict will cascade through the global economy for months to come. The strategic calculus favors de-escalation given achieved US objectives.
• Hopes fade for US-Iran deal ahead of Tuesday 8pmET deadline as Iran rejects 45-day ceasefire, demanding permanent war end (WSJ)
• Iran submitted 10-point proposal demanding attack guarantees, Lebanon war cessation, and sanctions termination; Trump called it "significant step" but "not good enough" (NYT)
• Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey working to broker agreement; Trump may extend deadline if deal materializes (Axios)
• Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly unconscious receiving medical treatment, raising questions about country leadership (London Times)
• Pentagon refining civilian infrastructure target list to mitigate war crime charges if bombing campaign proceeds (Politico)
AVGO signed new TPU agreements with Google and Anthropic, pointing to upside risk on AI chip sales and highlighting ARR acceleration potential.
ASML shares tumbled in European trading after Thursday's US bill introduction imposing fresh restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales to China (Reuters).
AAPL encountering engineering and production setbacks for new foldable iPhone, potentially delaying launch timeline (Nikkei).
UMG received $63B takeout bid from Bill Ackman worth €30.40/share (€5.05 cash plus 0.77 shares in new entity), with listing shifting to New York upon completion (FT).
Samsung Electronics reported blow-out preliminary Q1 results though shares faded after initial gains.
PSX will book $900MM mark-to-market loss on hedges due to sharp commodity price rises.
April 7 — US durable/capital goods orders for February (8:30amET), NY Fed consumer expectations survey for March (11amET), consumer credit for February (3pmET)
April 8 — FOMC minutes release (2pmET), Delta earnings pre-market
Tuesday Post**: **GBX**, **LEVI
Wednesday Pre**: **DAL
Wednesday Post**: **APLD**, **STZ
Limited visibility provided in source material beyond current week schedule.