US equity futures showing strength with S&P +0.87%, Nasdaq +0.80%, Dow +0.90%, and R2K +1.43%. European indices up 40-60 basis points with outperformance in basic resources and financials while energy and semis lag. Asian markets mostly declined with Korea KOSPI -4.26%, Taiwan -2.45%, Japan Nikkei -1.58%. Brent oil down 0.45% to ~$107, gold climbing 1.30%, silver advancing 4.50%, Bitcoin up 0.25% to ~$66.75K. DXY flat to down small.
Treasuries extending Monday's gains with yields down 2-3 basis points across the curve. Markets pricing in essentially no Fed action this year on the funds rate.
We're turning slightly more bullish given favorable technical conditions in positioning and sentiment, plus potential for marginally positive Middle East news flow. While escalation fallout would be significantly negative (as Iran intensifies economic terror campaigns), this exact prospect should keep Trump seeking an offramp. The one wrinkle remains tech, which will likely continue struggling for the foreseeable future. Iran is gradually reopening Hormuz to certain traffic while Houthis haven't fired on ships recently.
• Trump tells aides he's willing to end Iran war without reopening Hormuz, as seizing the waterway would extend military campaign beyond 4-6 week timeline (WSJ)
• Iran's remaining government struggling to make decisions following ongoing war and assassinations of senior leaders, though security services still function (NYT)
• Iran pushing Houthis to resume Red Sea shipping attacks if US escalates further (Bloomberg)
• Gulf allies pressing White House to continue fighting until Iran decisively defeated (AP)
• Pakistan and Chinese foreign ministers meeting in Beijing on war negotiations
MKC nearing deal to combine with Unilever's food business in massive cash-stock transaction structured as Reverse Morris Trust, with Unilever owning ~2/3 of new entity (WSJ). NFLX wants to expand NFL games streaming from two to four games (WSJ). PHR cut F27 sales guidance to $510-520MM from prior $545-559MM citing shorter visibility into pharma spending, though EBITDA forecast unchanged at $125-135MM. PRGS reported modest FQ1 upside with EPS $1.60/revenue $248MM vs. Street $1.57/$247MM, raising full-year EPS guidance to $5.91-6.03 from prior $5.82-5.96.
March 31 — US home prices for January (9amET), Chicago PMI for March (9:45amET), Conference Board confidence for March (10amET), JOLTs report for February (10amET)
April 1 — ADP jobs for March (8:15amET), retail sales for February (8:30amET), manufacturing ISM for March (10amET)
Pre-market Tuesday: FDS, MKC, SNX
Post-market Tuesday: NCNO, NKE, PLAY, PVH, RH
Pre-market Wednesday: CAG, CALM, LW
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