US equity futures remain largely flat this morning with the S&P up just +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.08%, Dow -0.06%, and Russell 2000 -0.07%. European indices show mixed results with the SX5E down -0.15% while the SXXP edges up +0.05%. Asian markets posted modest gains led by Korea's KOSPI (+2.07%) and Taiwan (+1.17%). Brent crude climbs 0.60% to ~$95.35, while gold falls -0.75%, silver drops -0.90%, and Bitcoin edges down -0.15% to ~$74K. The DXY holds about flat.
Treasuries show modest weakness with yields flat to up 2 basis points across the curve. Fed expectations remain largely unchanged, with markets pricing in just 10 basis points of cuts for the full year as Iran war uncertainty keeps policy normalization on hold.
We're turning neutral in the near-term as the SPX has surged roughly 10% from its 6300 trough in almost a straight line, now approaching the 6900-7000 pre-war resistance zone. While we remain sanguine about the Iran ceasefire's durability and Q1 earnings have impressed, our optimism is no longer contrarian. Technical tailwinds have diminished even as sentiment remains bearish (fund managers are the most pessimistic since Q2 last year per BoA). The economic fallout from the war will persist even if fighting permanently ends, likely keeping Brent around $90 through summer.
Trump signals imminent breakthrough with Iran, telling Fox the war is "very close to being over" and suggesting peace talks "could be happening over the next two days" (Fox, NY Post, Bloomberg). The Pentagon continues deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East despite diplomatic progress (Washington Post). Europe prepares a NATO replacement should Trump exit the alliance while also drafting plans to clear Hormuz of mines post-conflict (WSJ). Iran acquired a Chinese satellite to target US bases and may need to significantly reduce oil production within two weeks if the US blockade continues (FT).
ASML posted solid Q1 upside with EPS of EU7.15 versus Street EU6.65, raising full-year sales guidance to EU36-40B from Street EU34-39B as management notes "demand for chips is outpacing supply" (ASML). Hermes shares slumped on disappointing Q1 sales growth of +5.6% versus Street +7.4%, with weakness across Leather, Watches, and key regions including Asia and France (Hermes). Kering declined after flat organic revenue versus Street +1% forecast, driven by Gucci's -8% organic decline (Kering). Stellantis rallied on strong Q1 shipments up 12% to 1.4M units with North America surging 17% (Stellantis). Broadcom announced an extended Meta partnership exceeding 1GW for MTIA chip deployment (Broadcom). Nike saw insider buying from CEO Elliott Hill (23.6K shares) and board member Tim Cook (25K shares).
April 15 — BAC, PGR, PNC, MS earnings; Empire Manufacturing Index; Import/Export Prices; NAHB Housing Index; Fed Beige Book (2pmET); China GDP Q1, Retail Sales, Industrial Production
April 16 — ABT, BK, PEP, SCHW, TRV, USB earnings; Weekly Claims; Philly Fed Index; Industrial Production; AA, NFLX after close
April 17 — ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, TFC earnings; Eurozone Trade Balance
Wednesday Pre: BAC, PGR, PNC, MS, MTB
Wednesday Post: HOMB, SLG
Thursday Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, PEP, PLD, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB
Thursday Post: AA, NFLX
Friday Pre: ALLY, ALV, FITB, RF, STT, TFC
Major names include financial sector heavyweights continuing their Q1 reporting cycle, with technology and industrial names ramping up in the following week as earnings season reaches full momentum.