S&P +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.80%, Dow +0.51%, R2K +0.91%. Brent +110bp, Gold +90bp, Silver +200bp, BTC +310bp to ~$78K.
Treasuries remain fairly flat across the curve with Fed expectations holding steady. The market is pricing in approximately 9 basis points of FOMC rate cuts this year.
US equity futures are rallying on Trump's indefinite ceasefire extension, with media reports suggesting Washington and Tehran have significantly narrowed their differences on a potential deal (though deep distrust and the ongoing blockade persist). Q1 earnings continue delivering strong results despite geopolitical pressures, though energy-sensitive travel companies are getting hammered by oil costs. The market increasingly views Operation Epic Fury as past its peak, with some form of agreement more likely than not. Whatever gets announced will likely amount to a grudging détente with deliverables rather than a permanent solution to core tensions.
• Trump posted that the ceasefire deadline has been postponed indefinitely after insisting for days it wouldn't be moved (WSJ, Axios, CNN)
• US and Iran have made significant progress behind the scenes on key issues including Iran's nuclear program and could strike a deal quickly if/when they agree to meet (WSJ)
• White House officials say the suspension isn't open-ended and Iran has "another 3-5 days" to engage, with face-to-face meetings still possible if Tehran indicates readiness to negotiate (Axios, CNN)
• Iran's military retains significant capabilities despite recent US/Israeli bombing, while US has significantly depleted critical missile stockpiles (NBC News, CNN)
• Russian official says Russian citizens in Moldova's Transdniestria are under threat and Moscow will take steps to protect them (Reuters)
ABB shares rally in Europe after reporting solid Q1 upside on sales (+11% vs. Street +9.3%) and especially bookings (+24% vs. Street +9.3%), boosting full-year guidance with strongest momentum in data centers.
COF reported shortfall on Q1 adjusted EPS at $4.42 (vs. Street $4.56), with the miss driven by weaker revenue and higher provisions ($4.068B vs. Street $3.8B), though expense control was strong with marketing down 23%.
CB delivered upside on Q1 EPS (6.82 vs. Street 6.60) driven by favorable combined ratio, with standout net premium growth of 7.2% despite acknowledging softening industry conditions in property and financial lines.
UAL reported modest Q1 adjusted EPS upside (1.19 vs. Street 1.09) but Q2 guidance falls short ($1-2 vs. Street $1.75) due to fuel cost surge, though full-year EPS midpoint of $9 remains close to consensus despite oil headwinds.
ISRG posted solid Q1 upside with EPS 2.50 vs. Street 2.10 and sales $2.77B vs. Street $2.61B, tweaking full-year guidance higher with 17% procedure growth and strong system shipments.
TFX is being explored for a takeover by private equity firms CVC and GTCR (Bloomberg).
Wednesday 4/22 — South Korea Q1 GDP report (Wednesday night)
Wednesday Pre-Market: BA, BSX, ELV, GEV, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, VRT
Wednesday Post-Market: IBM, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI
No specific dates provided beyond Wednesday's schedule listed above.