US equity futures are spiking with the SPX up +2.67%, Nasdaq surging +3.50%, Dow climbing +2.42%, and R2K jumping +3.80%. Major European indices are rallying 350-430 basis points across the board. Asian markets posted massive gains overnight with Korea KOSPI leading at +6.87% (Samsung up 10%, SK Hynix rocketing 16% higher). Brent crude is collapsing -13.5% to $94.45 following the ceasefire news. Gold advances +1.95% while silver rockets +5.60% higher. Bitcoin jumps +3.70% to around $71,860. The DXY is slumping -1.00%.
Treasury yields are declining with 10-year yields down 6 basis points and 2-year yields falling 7 basis points. The market is now pricing in 14 basis points worth of rate cuts this year, marking a dovish shift in Fed expectations.
The ceasefire announcement creates significant upside risk for equities as technical imbalances in positioning and sentiment are forced to normalize. However, the SPX was struggling with the 6900-7000 level before the war, making that an even stronger resistance zone now. Stocks that benefited from the conflict (energy, defense contractors) will likely see aggressive profit-taking while consumer discretionary names should rally hardest. The economy and Corporate America will still grapple with stagflationary fallout from the past five weeks for months ahead.
Trump formally announced a 2-week ceasefire with Iran at 6:30pmET Tuesday night, contingent on complete reopening of the Hormuz Strait (multiple sources). Iran has approved the proposal according to media reports, though questions remain about potential shipping fees. Netanyahu confirmed Israel will abide by the ceasefire in Iran but noted it doesn't apply to Lebanon. US-Iran negotiations will begin Friday in Islamabad with significant issues remaining on enrichment, sanctions, and proxy groups (Axios). Republican Clay Fuller won Georgia's special House election by just 12 points versus Trump's 37-point margin in 2024 (NYT). The Democratic-backed candidate won Wisconsin's Supreme Court race in a 20-point landslide (Politico).
LEVI posted solid Q1 results with EPS of 42¢ versus Street estimates of 37¢, driven by revenue growth of +14% headline (+9% organic) to $1.742B against expectations of $1.648B. Operating margins of 12.5% beat plans by nearly 50 basis points, and the company raised FY26 guidance.
F has been rebuffed by the White House in seeking aluminum tariff relief while the Novelis facility in New York remains offline following a fire, creating pressure on F-150 production (WSJ).
MGPI announced plans to temporarily idle two distilling operations, citing structural oversupply in the American whiskey market with excess capacity and elevated inventory levels.
April 9 — US PCE for February (Street expects headline unchanged at +2.8% Y/Y, core cooling 10 basis points to +3.0%)
April 10 — US CPI for March (Street looking for sharp acceleration in headline to +3.4% vs +2.4% in February, core climbing to +2.7%)
April 10 — First US-Iran official meeting in Pakistan
Wednesday Pre-Market: Delta, RPM
Wednesday Post-Market: APLD, STZ
Thursday Pre-Market: SMPL
Thursday Post-Market: WDFC
Limited visibility provided in source material beyond this week's reports.