Markets closed over the weekend. Data from Friday close: SPX -0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%.
Fed inquiry into bank exposure to private credit amid spike in redemption requests gaining attention (Bloomberg). Warsh confirmation as Fed chair before Powell's term ends May 15 looking increasingly unlikely (FT).
The Pakistan meeting was definitely a disappointment for US equities, especially considering the recent rally and the fact the SPX had rebounded back to the pre-war resistance zone of ~6900-7000. However, we don't think it will trigger an immediate collapse of the ceasefire or escalation in fighting. The escalatory options available to Trump are so bad they remain unlikely, which is why he opted for a Hormuz blockade rather than fresh strikes. Wall Street banks expected to see Q1 trading revenue jump thanks to recent volatility spike (FT).
US-Iran talks in Pakistan broke down over fundamental disagreements on Hormuz control, uranium stockpiles, and enrichment rights, though Trump claimed "most points were agreed to" (Vital Knowledge). Two US Navy destroyers passed through Hormuz over the weekend following standoff with Iranian military to clear mines from the waterway (NYT, WSJ). China announced resumption of some Taiwan ties including direct flights and aquaculture imports (NBC News). US Court of International Trade signaled opposition to White House's 10% Section 122 tariff (Reuters).
CSGP Third Point has sold out of its position and won't pursue a proxy fight against CoStar (Reuters).
TSLA The Netherlands became first European country to approve Tesla's self-driving software (Reuters).
PopUp Bagels valued at ~$300MM in new funding round, up ~5x in just five months with Tiger Global backing (Bloomberg).
April 13 — India CPI for March (6:30am ET)
April 13 — US existing home sales for March (10am ET)
April 13 — China imports/exports for March (Monday night)
April 14 — US PPI for March (Tuesday morning)
April 15 — US import/export prices for March (Wednesday morning)
April 15 — Fed Beige Book (Wednesday afternoon)
April 15 — China retail sales/industrial production for March (Wednesday night)
Monday Pre:** FAST, **GS
Monday Post:** **LVMH
Tuesday Pre:** BLK, **C**, **JNJ**, **JPM**, KMX, **WFC
Tuesday Post: Kering
Wednesday Pre: BAC, PNC, MS, ASML, Hermes
Wednesday Post: SLG
Thursday Pre: ABT, BK, CFG, KEY, MRSH, PEP, SCHW, TRV, TSM, USB, Entain, Pernod Ricard
Thursday Post:** AA, **NFLX
Friday Pre: RF, STT, TFC, Ericsson
Not specified in newsletter content.