SPX rallied more than +13% in less than a month (reaching ~7100-7150 vs. ~6315 on 3/30). No specific session data provided.
Fed Governor Waller delivered a somewhat dovish speech Friday, noting that if Middle East tensions cool quickly with Hormuz reopened, rate cuts could be on the table later this year since inflation ex-tariffs is tracking close to the 2% target. However, he warned that a sequence of shocks could keep inflation elevated for quite some time.
The bulk of the Iran-linked rally appears over with SPX having surged 13% in less than a month. While bulls point to technical tailwinds, easing Middle East tensions, and solid earnings, much of this optimism is already priced in at current levels. Even if a US-Iran deal materializes (which remains the likely path given Trump's lack of good kinetic options), the market has largely moved to price in this outcome. The focus should shift back to fundamentals and whether earnings can justify these elevated valuations.
Iran developments continue pointing toward deescalation, with Trump claiming Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium and abandon nuclear weapon plans, though hardliners within Iran's government remain divided (WSJ). The Strait of Hormuz experienced volatility over the weekend, briefly opening Friday before Iran insisted it remained largely shuttered (WSJ). Face-to-face US-Iran meetings could occur Tuesday in Pakistan. Netanyahu was reportedly "shocked" by Trump's social media post prohibiting Israel from bombing Lebanon (Axios). US support for Israel appears to be collapsing based on new polling (Axios).
AAL rejected merger overtures from UAL according to WSJ reporting. AAPL saw surging app creation and launches on its App Store, underscoring the platform's continued relevance despite predictions of its demise (Tech Crunch). ABNB is adding rooms from independent hotel operators while undercutting EXPE and BKNG on fees (FT). BRK CEO Abel unloaded stocks managed by recently departed Todd Combs and doesn't consider BAC or CVX core positions (WSJ). META will cut approximately 10% of its workforce (~8K people) next month with additional reductions planned later (Reuters). FRMI shares tumbled after announcing the immediate departure of co-founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer (Bloomberg). TGNA/NXST merger was blocked by a federal judge on antitrust grounds (WSJ).
April 21 — US retail sales for March (8:30am ET), Warsh Fed confirmation hearing
April 22 — Potential US-Iran ceasefire deadline extension
April 23 — US flash PMIs for April (9:45am ET)
April 29 — Fed decision (Fed in quiet period until then)
Monday: CLF (morning); STLD, ZION (evening)
Tuesday: DGX, DHI, DHR, GE, HAL, MMM, NOC, RTX, UNH (morning); CB, COF, ISRG, UAL (evening)
Wednesday: BA, BSX, ELV, GEV, MAS, MCO, OTIS, PM, T, TEL, VRT (morning); CCI, CSX, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LUV, LVS, NOW, TSLA, TXN, URI (evening)
Thursday: AAL, AXP, BX, CMCSA, DOW, FCX, HON, KDP, LMT, PHM, TMO, UNP (morning); BKR, INTC, NEM, SAP (evening)
Friday: CHTR, HCA, NSC, PG, SLB (morning)
Key focus on AXP, BX, GEV (Wednesday morning), IBM, INTC, LRCX, NOW, TSLA, TXN (Wednesday evening), TEL, VRT (Wednesday morning), and PG (Friday morning). European earnings include ABB, Akzo Nobel, Danone (Wednesday) and BE Semiconductor, Heineken, LSEG, Nestle, Nokia, Roche, Sanofi, STM (Thursday).